Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 20, 2012 (edited) Decided I'd put together some numbers (per PFF) that not only prove that Volume =/= Success and that schemes take great players and put them in situations where they produce smaller numbers, but at better rates (see Pittsburgh's linebackers). There are many variables that simply can't be taken into account, such as the number of times a player is held without getting the call and the amount of times they're doubled We also can't quantify disruptions or sacks that come about not because of a player's skill, but because of the offense's failure (miscommunications, leaving a player unblocked, et cetera). Because of these intangibles, we must look only at percentages, the true equalizer in pass rushing statistics. We use Yards Per Attempt and Yards Per Carry for QBs and RBs to help determine which players are the best. Why do we only look at volume stats for pass rushers instead of using an average? If a QB throws for 4,000 yards, but does so in 800 attempts (5 YPA), does that make him better than someone that throws for 3,000 yards in 333 attempts (9 YPA)? The second QB clearly had the better season. The same logic needs to be applied to pass rushers, and that's what I've done. The players are first ranked on the percent of pass rushes that they notched a sack and then on the percent that they disrupted the QB (Disruption = Sacks + Hits + Hurries). After that I tallied up all of the rankings and created a final ranking at the bottom from 1-41. Name Coverage percentage Total plays, Run defense, Pass rush, Coverage Sacks, Hits, Pressures Sack percentage Disruption percentage Sack Percentage Rankings: 1. Rolando McClain 0.8431372549019608 1037, 374, 104, 559 5, 5, 10 0.0480769230769231 0.1923076923076923 2. LaMarr Woodley 0.3146417445482866 520, 199, 220, 101 10, 3, 11 0.0454545454545455 0.1090909090909091 3. DeMarcus Ware 0.1451612903225806 914, 356, 447, 81 20, 8, 44 0.0447427293064877 0.1610738255033557 4. Aldon Smith 0.0989847715736041 506, 112, 355, 39 15, 13, 36 0.0422535211267606 0.1802816901408451 5. Jason Babin 0.0046620046620047 720, 291, 427, 2 18, 12, 37 0.0421545667447307 0.1569086651053864 6. Jared Allen 0.032520325203252 1044, 429, 595, 20 24, 8, 34 0.0403361344537815 0.1109243697478992 7. Antwan Barnes 0.0897009966777409 483, 182, 274, 27 11, 5, 29 0.0401459854014599 0.1642335766423358 8. Mario Williams 0.1188811188811189 225, 82, 126, 17 5, 2, 17 0.0396825396825397 0.1904761904761905 9. James Harrison 0.3765586034912718 681, 280, 250, 151 9, 11, 23 0.036 0.172 10. Osi Umenyiora 0.0078125 374, 118, 254, 2 9, 4, 20 0.0354330708661417 0.1299212598425197 11. Aaron Maybin 0.0619047619047619 239, 29, 197, 13 6, 2, 16 0.0304568527918782 0.1218274111675127 12. Von Miller 0.2147001934235977 907, 390, 406, 111 12, 19, 29 0.0295566502463054 0.1477832512315271 13. Trent Cole 0.0284974093264249 640, 254, 375, 11 11, 12, 44 0.0293333333333333 0.1786666666666667 14. Jason Pierre-Paul 0.0219594594594595 971, 379, 579, 13 16, 14, 26 0.0276338514680484 0.0967184801381693 15. Terrell Suggs 0.1070234113712375 1011, 413, 534, 64 14, 11, 33 0.0262172284644195 0.1086142322097378 16. Tamba Hali 0.1290322580645161 1009, 482, 459, 68 12, 10, 41 0.0261437908496732 0.1372549019607843 17. Brian Orakpo 0.275092936802974 956, 418, 390, 148 10, 6, 43 0.0256410256410256 0.1512820512820513 18. Chris Long 0.0355805243445693 946, 412, 515, 19 13, 12, 58 0.0252427184466019 0.1611650485436893 19. Elvis Dumervil 0.0121457489878543 863, 369, 488, 6 12, 7, 28 0.0245901639344262 0.0963114754098361 20. Robert Mathis 0.0068965517241379 748, 313, 432, 3 10, 8, 30 0.0231481481481481 0.1111111111111111 21. Charles Johnson 0.0334821428571429 805, 357, 433, 15 10, 6, 32 0.023094688221709 0.1108545034642032 22. Connor Barwin 0.1419141914191419 986, 380, 520, 86 12, 18, 24 0.0230769230769231 0.1038461538461538 23. Chris Clemons 0.0885860306643952 952, 365, 535, 52 12, 9, 45 0.0224299065420561 0.1233644859813084 24. Cliff Avril 0.0235081374321881 889, 336, 540, 13 12, 9, 41 0.0222222222222222 0.1148148148148148 25. Julius Peppers 0.0393835616438356 919, 335, 561, 23 12, 5, 53 0.0213903743315508 0.124777183600713 26. Ryan Kerrigan 0.2470784641068447 1056, 463, 451, 148 9, 12, 36 0.0199556541019956 0.1263858093126386 27. Adrian Clayborn 0.0225225225225225 874, 430, 434, 10 8, 10, 32 0.0184331797235023 0.1152073732718894 28. Dwight Freeney 0.00 696, 261, 435, 0 8, 8, 33 0.0183908045977011 0.1126436781609195 29. Jabaal Sheard 0.0217821782178218 970, 465, 494, 11 9, 4, 42 0.0182186234817814 0.111336032388664 30. Cameron Wake 0.0909090909090909 904, 332, 520, 52 9, 20, 52 0.0173076923076923 0.1557692307692308 31. Carlos Dunlap 0.0412698412698413 448, 133, 302, 13 5, 13, 29 0.0165562913907285 0.1556291390728477 32. Justin Tuck 0.0311750599520384 648, 231, 404, 13 6, 6, 21 0.0148514851485149 0.0816831683168317 33. Jason Worilds 0.3037542662116041 501, 208, 204, 89 3, 7, 20 0.0147058823529412 0.1470588235294118 34. Jeremy Mincey 0.0265486725663717 973, 408, 550, 15 8, 11, 38 0.0145454545454545 0.1036363636363636 35. Calvin Pace 0.3079710144927536 977, 425, 382, 170 5, 8, 23 0.0130890052356021 0.0942408376963351 36. Ahmad Brooks 0.2395498392282958 967, 345, 473, 149 6, 8, 37 0.0126849894291755 0.105708245243129 37. Kamerion Wimbley 0.2717557251908397 1075, 420, 477, 178 6, 16, 40 0.0125786163522013 0.129979035639413 38. Clay Matthews 0.2211382113821138 970, 355, 479, 136 6, 21, 40 0.0125260960334029 0.139874739039666 39. Da'Quan Bowers 0.044 507, 257, 239, 11 2, 4, 19 0.0083682008368201 0.104602510460251 40. Derrick Morgan 0.0643564356435644 635, 231, 378, 26 3, 6, 19 0.0079365079365079 0.0740740740740741 41. Lamarr Houston 0.035264483627204 719, 322, 383, 14 3, 4, 27 0.0078328981723238 0.0887728459530026 Disruption Percentage Rankings: 1. Rolando McClain 0.1923076923076923 2. Mario Williams 0.1904761904761905 3. Aldon Smith 0.1802816901408451 4. Trent Cole 0.1786666666666667 5. James Harrison 0.172 6. Antwan Barnes 0.1642335766423358 7. Chris Long 0.1611650485436893 8. DeMarcus Ware 0.1610738255033557 9. Jason Babin 0.1569086651053864 10. Cameron Wake 0.1557692307692308 11. Carlos Dunlap 0.1556291390728477 12. Brian Orakpo 0.1512820512820513 13. Von Miller 0.1477832512315271 14. Jason Worilds 0.1470588235294118 15. Clay Matthews 0.139874739039666 16. Tamba Hali 0.1372549019607843 17. Kamerion Wimbley 0.129979035639413 18. Osi Umenyiora 0.1299212598425197 19. Ryan Kerrigan 0.1263858093126386 20. Julius Peppers 0.124777183600713 21. Aaron Maybin 0.1218274111675127 22. Chris Clemons 0.1233644859813084 23. Adrian Clayborn 0.1152073732718894 24. Cliff Avril 0.1148148148148148 25. Dwight Freeney 0.1126436781609195 26. Jabaal Sheard 0.111336032388664 27. Robert Mathis 0.111111111111111 28. Jared Allen 0.1109243697478992 29. Charles Johnson 0.1108545034642032 30. LaMarr Woodley 0.1090909090909091 31. Terrell Suggs 0.1086142322097378 32. Ahmad Brooks 0.105708245243129 33. Da'Quan Bowers 0.104602510460251 34. Connor Barwin 0.1038461538461538 35. Jeremy Mincey 0.1036363636363636 36. Jason Pierre-Paul 0.0967184801381693 37. Elvis Dumervil 0.0963114754098361 38. Calvin Pace 0.0942408376963351 39. Lamarr Houston 0.0887728459530026 40. Justin Tuck 0.0816831683168317 41. Derrick Morgan 0.0740740740740741 Name / Disruption % Rank / Sack % Rank Jason Worilds 14 - 33 Rolando McClain 2 - 1 Mario Williams 3 - 8 Aldon Smith 4 - 4 Trent Cole 5 - 13 James Harrison 6 - 9 Antwan Barnes 7 - 7 Chris Long 8 - 18 DeMarcus Ware 9 - 3 Jason Babin 10 - 5 Cameron Wake 11 - 30 Carlos Dunlap 12 - 31 Brian Orakpo 13 - 17 Von Miller 14 - 12 Clay Matthews 15 - 38 Tamba Hali 16 - 16 Kamerion Wimbley 17 - 37 Osi Umenyiora 18 - 10 Ryan Kerrigan 19 - 26 Julius Peppers 20 - 25 Aaron Maybin 21 - 11 Chris Clemons 22 - 23 Adrian Clayborn 23 - 27 Cliff Avril 24 - 24 Dwight Freeney 25 - 28 Jabaal Sheard 26 - 29 Robert Mathis 27 - 20 Jared Allen 28 - 6 LaMarr Woodley 30 - 2 Terrell Suggs 31 - 15 Charles Johnson 29 - 21 Ahmad Brooks 32 - 36 Da'Quan Bowers 33 - 39 Connor Barwin 34 - 22 Jeremy Mincey 35 - 34 Jason Pierre-Paul 36 - 14 Elvis Dumervil 37 - 19 Calvin Pace 38 - 35 Lamarr Houston 39 - 41 Justin Tuck 40 - 32 Derrick Morgan 41 - 40 Disrupting the quarterback with hits and pressures is sometimes just as affective as actually getting a sack. Disruption Percentage is therefore weighted heavier than Sack Percentage, because it's better to have a player that is getting a lot of pressure as well as sacks verses someone who gets a lot of sacks and little pressure. Here are the definitive rankings if we add half of the Sack Percentage number to the Disruption Percentage number to get a final grade (lower is better). 1. Rolando McClain 2.5 2. Aldon Smith 6 3. Mario Williams 7 4. James Harrison 10.5 Antwan Barnes 10.5 DeMarcus Ware 10.5 7. Trent Cole 11.5 8. Jason Babin 12.5 9. Chris Long 17 10. Von Miller 20 11. Brian Orakpo 21.5 12. Osi Umenyiora 23 13. Tamba Hali 24 14. Cameron Wake 26 15. Aaron Maybin 26.5 16. Carlos Dunlap 27.5 17. Jason Worlids 30.5 18. LaMarr Woodley 31 Jared Allen 31 20. Ryan Kerrigan 32 21. Julius Peppers 32.5 22. Chris Clemons 33.5 23. Kamerion Wimbley 35.5 24. Clay Matthews 34 25. Cliff Avril 36 26. Adrian Clayborn 36.5 27. Robert Mathis 37 28. Terrell Suggs 38.5 29. Dwight Freeney 39 30. Charles Johnson 39.5 31. Jabaal Sheard 40.5 32. Jason Pierre-Paul 44 33. Connor Barwin 45 34. Elvis Dumervil 46.5 35. Ahmad Brooks 50 36. Jeremy Mincey 52 37. Da'Quan Bowers 52.5 38. Calvin Pace 55.5 39. Justin Tuck 56 40. Lamarr Houston 59.5 41. Derrick Morgan 61 Edited June 28, 2012 by Zack_of_Steel 9 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted January 20, 2012 Trent Cole ftw. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted January 20, 2012 (edited) a little clarification for those of us unfamiliar with PFF's stats, I think I've figured out sack percentage [sacks/pass rush plays] and distribution percentage [(sacks+hits+pressures)/pass rush plays] but what is coverage percentage? Edited January 20, 2012 by oochymp 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NaTaS+ 958 Posted January 20, 2012 I'd like to see how Jabaal Sheard stacks up. He's a rookie but it seems like he'll be a good one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 20, 2012 a little clarification for those of us unfamiliar with PFF's stats, I think I've figured out sack percentage [sacks/pass rush plays] and distribution percentage [(sacks+hits+pressures)/pass rush plays] but what is coverage percentage? Sorry, I should have clarified. PFF provided me with play counts and sacks/hits/pressures and I did percentages from there. You got Sack Percentage and Disruption Percentage correct. Coverage Percentage is the percentage of pass plays that a given player drops back into coverage. It's mainly for the 3-4 OLBs and is as follows: Coverage plays/(Coverage plays+Pass Rush Plays) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 20, 2012 I'd like to see how Jabaal Sheard stacks up. He's a rookie but it seems like he'll be a good one. Jabaal Sheard 0.0217821782178218 970, 465, 494, 11 9, 4, 42 0.0182186234817814 0.111336032388664 That puts him at 18th in Sack Percentage above Wake, Tuck, and Matthews. He's 14th of these players at Disruption Percentage, beating Allen, Woodley, Suggs, Barwin, Pierre-Paul, Dumervil, and Tuck. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 21, 2012 The last four years for the Steelers LBs vs Ware. Very close Sack Percentages, but Timmons and Harrison had better Disruption Percentages. Put the Steelers in a system where they're not in coverage 35-38% of the time and they'd put up numbers equal to or better than Ware. Suck my dick, Cowboys fans. James Harrison 362, 220 17, 8, 32 420, 224 10, 13, 34 395, 280 11, 15, 32 250, 151 9, 11, 23 2302 Pass Plays 1427 Pass Rush Plays 875 Coverage Plays 47 Sacks 215 QB Disruptions 0.0329362298528381 Sack Percentage 0.1506657323055361 Disruption Percentage 0.3801042571676803 Coverage Percentage LaMarr Woodley 364, 203 11, 9, 19 391, 251 14, 15, 31 427, 205 9, 7, 53 220, 101 10, 3, 11 2162 Pass Plays 1402 Pass Rush Plays 760 Coverage Plays 44 Sacks 192 QB Disruptions 0.0313837375178317 Sack Percentage 0.1369472182596291 Disruption Percentage 0.3515263644773358 Coverage Percentage Lawrence Timmons 104, 251 5, 9, 7 145, 349 7, 4, 14 161, 478 3, 4, 20 194, 391 2, 5, 8 2073 Pass Plays 604 Pass Rush Plays 1469 Coverage Plays 17 Sacks 88 QB Disruptions 0.0281456953642384 Sack Percentage 0.1456953642384106 Disruption Percentage 0.708634828750603 Coverage Percentage DeMarcus Ware 496, 106 20, 12, 21 556, 84 12, 17, 56 509, 66 15, 8, 56 447, 81 20, 8, 44 2345 Pass Plays 2008 Pass Rush Plays 337 Coverage Plays 67 Sacks 289 QB Disruptions 0.0333665338645418 Sack Percentage 0.1439243027888446 Disruption Percentage 0.1437100213219616 Coverage Percentage Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted January 21, 2012 Sorry, I should have clarified. PFF provided me with play counts and sacks/hits/pressures and I did percentages from there. You got Sack Percentage and Disruption Percentage correct. Coverage Percentage is the percentage of pass plays that a given player drops back into coverage. It's mainly for the 3-4 OLBs and is as follows: Coverage plays/(Coverage plays+Pass Rush Plays) thanks for clearing that up, although it does seem a little disingenuous to me to group 4-3 DEs and 3-4 LBs in that statistic (Coverage percentage) since a 4-3 DE is going to be pass rushing on almost every play just by virtue of the formation, but it is an interesting comparison between Ware and the Steelers LBs since they're playing from the same spot in the same base formation Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
әightninә. 39 Posted January 21, 2012 Dwight Freeney? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BucD+ 648 Posted January 21, 2012 I know he's just a rookie, but I'd be interested to see how Adrian Clayborn stacks up.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maverick 791 Posted January 21, 2012 How long did this take you to do lol? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 21, 2012 (edited) thanks for clearing that up, although it does seem a little disingenuous to me to group 4-3 DEs and 3-4 LBs in that statistic (Coverage percentage) since a 4-3 DE is going to be pass rushing on almost every play just by virtue of the formation, but it is an interesting comparison between Ware and the Steelers LBs since they're playing from the same spot in the same base formation Well, I originally was only doing 3-4 OLBs, but then decided to do a big list with 4-3 DEs as well and put in Coverage Percentage for completion's sake. Dwight Freeney? Robert Mathis 0.0068965517241379 748, 313, 432, 3 10, 8, 30 0.0231481481481481 0.1111111111111111 Dwight Freeney 0.00 696, 261, 435, 0 8, 8, 33 0.0183908045977011 0.1126436781609195 I know he's just a rookie, but I'd be interested to see how Adrian Clayborn stacks up.... Adrian Clayborn 0.0225225225225225 874, 430, 434, 10 8, 10, 32 0.0184331797235023 0.1152073732718894 He ended up two spots above Jabaal Sheard in both categories and one above Freeney in both. Sack: 14. Elvis Dumervil 15. Robert Mathis 16. Connor Barwin 17. Chris Clemons 18. Julius Peppers 19. Adrian Clayborn 20. Dwight Freeney 21. Jabaal Sheard 22. Cameron Wake 23. Justin Tuck 24. Clay Matthews Disruption: 13. Chris Clemons 14. Adrian Clayborn 15. Dwight Freeney 16. Jabaal Sheard 17. Robert Mathis 18. Jared Allen 19. LaMarr Woodley 20. Terrell Suggs How long did this take you to do lol? Few hours. Edited January 21, 2012 by Zack_of_Steel 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted January 21, 2012 Jeremy Mincey. You would post when I was just finishing my other post. Jeremy Mincey 0.0265486725663717 973, 408, 550, 15 8, 11, 38 0.0145454545454545 0.1036363636363636 2nd to last in Sack Percentage, 4th to last in Disruption Percentage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BwareDWare94 723 Posted January 21, 2012 lol at Steelers OLBs being better than Ware. Excellent title, Zackarias! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maverick 791 Posted January 21, 2012 First off, props on doing this work. It seems like you put a lot of time and effort into it and it really is a great stat sheet to compare and contrast outside linebacks/defensive ends. Now, onto the good stuff... I know you're a Steelers fan and you hate the Cowboys. What I don't know is your stance on DeMarcus Ware. So tell me...what do you think of DeMarcus Ware? How much value do you into statistics when rating a player? Do you feel stats don't always tell the whole story? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted January 22, 2012 Well, I originally was only doing 3-4 OLBs, but then decided to do a big list with 4-3 DEs as well and put in Coverage Percentage for completion's sake. fair enough Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted June 25, 2012 First off, props on doing this work. It seems like you put a lot of time and effort into it and it really is a great stat sheet to compare and contrast outside linebacks/defensive ends. Now, onto the good stuff... I know you're a Steelers fan and you hate the Cowboys. What I don't know is your stance on DeMarcus Ware. So tell me...what do you think of DeMarcus Ware? How much value do you into statistics when rating a player? Do you feel stats don't always tell the whole story? I guess I never noticed the last two replies to this thread. I apologize. DeMarcus Ware is one of the best pass rushers in the league, but too often is he touted as being far and away the best 3-4 OLB in the league, which is simply not true. Ware does not drop back into coverage, as my numbers show. His game is all about setting the edge and rushing the passer, two things he is amazing at. However, I think there is a hole in his play, and that is coverage, something that Harrison and Woodley excel at. Woodley is not as great a pass rusher as Ware, but he's better in coverage. Harrison is equal to Ware in rushing the passer, but his coverage skills surpass Ware's and he is a more complete player overall. You can't go wrong with any of the three, but if you want just one, Harrison can rush the passer as well as Ware, but he can also cover, so you take him. It's a tossup between Woodley and Ware, it just depends on what you're looking for; do you want a better pass rusher or a great pass rusher that can also do great things in coverage and more often? I retooled the first post and added in a definitive top 25 pass rushers list at the bottom. Comments and discussion are appreciated and encouraged. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
butta54 371 Posted June 25, 2012 This is a lot of numbers being thrown around and analyzed and I'm really impressed by the work and agree with the logic. But if you want to make this simple it goes back to a debate I had to have earlier about Ware being the best OLB. As far as I'm concerned I'm a classic football fan and the position of LB is not determined by whether or not you put your hand in the ground before a play starts. The position is much more than having a pass rusher line up on the edge and take off. Ware maybe technically labeled as a LB but he is not as good as the Steeler's duo and I have argued this before. Once again versatility adds value and I'll keep reminded everyone that. Woodley and Harrison can simply do more than Ware. We just say dropping into coverage, but anyone who knows about football and defense understands that simple phrase contains a lot more than the regular fan knows. Dropping into coverage is knowing your zone or your man, knowing what reads to have meaning when you read pass you must now know where your eyes need to move next either the tight end or #2 receiver or even the slot. From there you have certain responsibilities depending on their route and you must also know what your teammates are covering so you can take shots in a flat or curl zone if you have help over top and you have to make sure nothing is coming out of the backfield usually as an OLB. Some of these OLB guys do way more work than Ware will ever do. He is the best pass rusher we can all agree, but he isn't the best OLB 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted June 26, 2012 Hard to argue with the final list for sure. I was a little surprised to see Mathis and Freeny in the middle of the pack like that but they're getting older and had down years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014 Posted June 27, 2012 So I decided that I'll do a couple of players I either missed or players that I think may have potential. Here's the list so far. Add to it if you like. Brian Orakpo Brandon Graham Jason Worilds Carlos Dunlap Cliff Avril Charles Johnson D'Quan Bowers LaMarr Houston Derrick Morgan Mario Williams Antwan Barnes Aaron Maybin Ryan Kerrigan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NaTaS+ 958 Posted June 27, 2012 I really like where Jabaal Sheard is heading. Nice to see where he ranked. Looks like middle of the league but I'll take it for a rook. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blotsfan 2,112 Posted June 27, 2012 So I decided that I'll do a couple of players I either missed or players that I think may have potential. Here's the list so far. Add to it if you like. Brian Orakpo Brandon Graham Jason Worilds Carlos Dunlap Cliff Avril Charles Johnson D'Quan Bowers LaMarr Houston Derrick Morgan Mario Williams Antwan Barnes Aaron Maybin Ryan Kerrigan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
