Sophomore Slump?

[Thanatos 2,847]

The sophomore slump. Plenty of people have been pointing to this idea as the reason why Cam Newton and Andy Dalton will struggle in 2012. But, in actuality, the sophomore slump doesn't seem to affect rookie signal-callers falling into their category. That category being those QBs who fit the following criteria:

 

1. They started 10+ games in their first year.

2. They threw for over 2500 yards in their first year.

3. They retained the starting job in their second year.

 

Over the last 20 seasons, since 1992, 12 quarterbacks fall into this category: Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Rick Mirer, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Ben Roethlisberger, David Carr, Tony Banks, and Jeff Garcia.

 

Every QB except Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford actually increase in QBR in their second year. Now we know that Bradford was injured a lot last year, and so was much of his team. Ryan actually throws for 6 more TDs, albeit with 4 more picks. His only major dropoff is in YPA, where he drops down 1.4.

 

Rick Mirer, Tony Banks, and David Carr's seasons are not significantly better than their first seasons, but then David Carr and Rick Mirer didn't have very good first seasons either, both with QBR's under 70. Banks has a virtually identical year to his first.

 

The point is, of the 12 QBs listed, none have a major dropoff in their second year with the exception of Bradford, who was injured most of the year, as I already pointed out.

 

Conclusion: The sophomore slump does not exist for quality rookie signal callers.

 

Stats (a= year 1, b= year 2)

1. Peyton Manning

a. 326/575, 56.7%, 3739 Yds, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 71.2 QBR, 6.5 YPA

b. 331/533, 62.1%, 4135 Yds, 26 TDs, 15 INTs, 90.7 QBR, 7.8 YPA

2. Sam Bradford

a. 354/590, 60.0%, 3512 Yds, 18 TDs, 15 INTs, 76.5 QBR, 5.95 YPA

b. 191/357, 53.5%, 2164 Yds, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 70.5 QBR, 6.1 YPA

3. Matt Ryan

a. 265/434, 61.1%, 3440 Yds, 16 TDs, 11 INTs, 87.7 QBR, 7.93 YPA

b. 263/451, 58.3%, 2916 Yds, 22 TDs, 14 INTs, 80.9, 6.5 YPA

4. Joe Flacco

a. 257/428, 60.0%, 2971 Yds, 14 TDs, 12 INTs, 80.3 QBR, 6.94 YPA

b. 315/499, 63.1%, 3613 Yds, 21 TDs, 12 INTs, 88.9 QBR, 7.2 YPA

5. Carson Palmer

a. 263/432, 60.9%, 2897 Yds, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, 77.3 QBR, 6.71 YPA

b. 345/509, 67.8%, 3826 Yds, 32 TDs, 12 INTs, 101.1 QBR, 7.5 YPA

6. Rick Mirer

a. 274/486, 56.4%, 2833 Yds, 12 TDs, 17 INTs, 67.0 QBR, 5.83 YPA

b. 195/381, 51.2%, 2151 Yds, 11 TDs, 7 INTs, 70.2 QBR, 5.6 YPA

7. Byron Leftwich

a. 239/418, 57.2%, 2819 Yds, 14 TDs, 16 INTs, 73.0 QBR, 6.74 YPA

b. 267/441, 60.5%, 2941 Yds, 15 TDs, 10 INTs, 82.2 QBR, 6.7 YPA

8. Kerry Collins

a. 214/433, 49.4%, 2717 Yds, 14 TDs, 19 INTs, 61.9 QBR, 6.27 YPA

b. 204/364, 56.0%, 2454 Yds, 14 TDs, 9 INTs, 79.4 QBR, 6.7 YPA

9. Ben Roethlisberger

a. 196/295, 66.4%, 2621 Yds, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 98.1 QBR, 8.88 YPA

b. 168/268, 62.7%, 2385 Yds, 17 TDs, 9 INTs, 98.6 QBR, 8.9 YPA

10. David Carr

a. 233/444, 52.5%, 2592 Yds, 9 TDs, 15 INTs, 62.8 QBR, 5.84 YPA

b. 167/295, 56.6%, 2013 Yds, 9 TDs, 13 INTs, 69.5 QBR, 6.8 YPA

11. Tony Banks

a. 192/368, 52.2%, 2544 Yds, 15 TDs, 15 INTs, 71.0 QBR, 6.91 YPA

b. 252/487, 51.7%, 3254 Yds, 14 TDs, 13 INTs, 71.5 QBR, 6.7 YPA

12. Jeff Garcia

a. 225/375, 60.0%, 2544 Yds, 11 TDs, 11 INTs, 77.9 QBR, 6.78 YPA

b. 355/561, 63.3%, 4278 Yds, 31 TDs, 10 INTs, 97.6 QBR, 7.6 YPA

Edited June 17, 2012 by Thanatos19

[BwareDWare94 723]

Well, out of the supposed "good" QBs on that list, Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford are drastically overrated, so this does not surprise me in any way.

[Vin+ 3,121]

Leftwich.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

It's just a miscomception based off of how some players have slumped in there second season.

 

This is just one of those cases where it's always important to put it into context. No two QBs are usually in the same situation.

 

A lot of times, the talented QBs usually perform better their second season in comparison to their first.

 

But the softmore slump does apply a lot more to other positions imo. Especially when they were successful the year before, for obvious reasons.

[Thanatos 2,847]

It's just a miscomception based off of how some players have slumped in there second season.

 

This is just one of those cases where it's always important to put it into context. No two QBs are usually in the same situation.

 

A lot of times, the talented QBs usually perform better their second season in comparison to their first.

 

But the softmore slump does apply a lot more to other positions imo. Especially when they were successful the year before, for obvious reasons.

 

It'd be interesting to look up other positions, but I definitely hear it applied the most to the QB position.

[butta54 371]

Yeah when I hear or talk about sophomore slump I def think of positions other than QB, just because their are soo many variables that go along with that position and if you keep the same situation a QB usually can build or equal their rookie year. I think this slump applies more strongly to other positions like defensive line for example that is a position in which OL will start to study your moves and lock you down so you have to continue to add to weapons to your arsenal.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Since certain people have brought this back up after a poor performance, have another look.

 

The vast majority of rookie QBs that play well through an entire season do not go through a sophomore slump. (Bradford being the notable exception, and there were a myriad of reasons for that.) What generally happens for those that do is they take over partway through the season, (Vince Young), and play well for the rest of the season, then in the next season whatever trick they were able to pull is dissected, analyzed, and systematically destroyed over the next year, OR the offensive coordinator fails to adjust to the new defensive schemes.

 

Now, I realize and have come to grips with the fact, that many people will always scream and yell this after every game that Cam doesn't do well. If you just wanna do that, fine.

 

I firmly believe that there is no such thing as a sophomore slump. That goes for Dalton as well as Newton, since he also falls into this category. If either "slumps" it is because he hasn't put the time and effort in to succeed that he needs to. The sophomore slumps idea gives QBs an excuse, and it simply does not exist for quality rookie QBs.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Thanatos19

[Omerta+ 1,206]

For QB's the sophomore slump is bullshit. plain and simple. I am glad somebody did the legwork to show it. Nicely done sire, nicely done

[56AceInDaPlace 110]

I believe in slumps but not second year slump. Too many things could be said to why they failing or why they are playing solid. Coaching, playcalling, scheme is also involved. I think thats whats hurting my Titans right now. Locker looked way better last year then this year. Not because his stats look bad but the whole playcalling sucks. Titan fans are starting to get on Palmer for his lack of change. He may be a good qb coach but the man cannot call a fucking game. Locker has a arm, and weapons. CJ struggles are on him makimg bad reads at times but also the line playing the worst ive seen a oline play. I know i say that over and over but still as a coach, and cordinator i feel theres no reason why they cant change it up. If something isnt working donot stick with it. Simple.

 

As for Cam he has looked up and down so far. He has weapons and RBs. I wonder what the problem is there.

[Phins4life 271]

Well, out of the supposed "good" QBs on that list, Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford are drastically overrated, so this does not surprise me in any way.

 

Interesting, considering he has over 40 wins since 2008. His numbers aren't half bad, either.

[Dutch 874]

Well, out of the supposed "good" QBs on that list, Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford are drastically overrated, so this does not surprise me in any way.

 

 

Matt Ryan is 43-21 in his 4 four seasons making the play offs 3 times including his rookie year which is definitely impressive. Unfortunately he's lost in the 1st round of each play off game. He definitely qualifies as a GOOD qb. He's just not great yet. That will happen after some play off wins. Kinda like Romo except Romo has 1 play off win.

Edited September 22, 2012 by dutchff7

[Eefluxx 113]

Well, out of the supposed "good" QBs on that list, Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford are drastically overrated, so this does not surprise me in any way.

 

I think Matt Ryan is overrated by the media. Most fans of football realize he is a good QB but lots of people in the media want to call him elite. I think even the most diehard Falcons fan will admit he is good and not elite. Tho some Falcons fans will argue with us Saints fans that he is I do believe it is mostly beause of the rivalry between us.

 

I personally think he is a good QB but has been restrained from trying to do too much since he got in the league. Once they let him loose I think he will only get better.

 

As for Sam Bradford I don't think he is even rated. Too many injuries to him and around him to really evaluate how he has done.

[Thanatos 2,847]

I believe in slumps but not second year slump. Too many things could be said to why they failing or why they are playing solid. Coaching, playcalling, scheme is also involved. I think thats whats hurting my Titans right now. Locker looked way better last year then this year. Not because his stats look bad but the whole playcalling sucks. Titan fans are starting to get on Palmer for his lack of change. He may be a good qb coach but the man cannot call a fucking game. Locker has a arm, and weapons. CJ struggles are on him makimg bad reads at times but also the line playing the worst ive seen a oline play. I know i say that over and over but still as a coach, and cordinator i feel theres no reason why they cant change it up. If something isnt working donot stick with it. Simple.

 

As for Cam he has looked up and down so far. He has weapons and RBs. I wonder what the problem is there.

 

I agree. I'm not saying they can't possibly slump in the second year, I'm saying that just because its the second year means absolutely nothing.

 

I won't touch the CJ issue, we'll have to agree to disagree on that guy.

 

As far as Cam goes... suffice to say I don't think its a coincidence that we are 0-2 without J-Stew and 1-0 with him. Now, he wouldn't have made enough of a difference to beat the Giants, obviously, but it would have been closer. We simply do not have a run-game without him, either A) because Tolbert can't do what is needed or B) because the OC won't give Tolbert the chance to do what is needed. A good run-game opens up all sorts of holes in the passing game.