[oochymp]

short answer: probably not, but it could happen

long answer: two posts from another thread on the topic (Original Topic)

oochymp, on 06 January 2013 - 02:46 PM, said:

[removed a section of this post discussing how far-fetched the idea of a 2500 yard season is]

As for the career record, as I'm sure everyone knows, Emmitt Smith currently holds that at 18,355. Peterson currently has 8849 over his first six seasons, through six seasons Smith had 8956, so despite the 2000 yard season, Peterson is still behind Smith's pace. One thing in Peterson's favor is that Smith's production dropped off substantially after his first six seasons. After season 6, Smith averaged 'only' 1044 yards per season the rest of his career and he failed to top 1400 yards in a single season after his sixth after breaking 1400 in five of his first six years, two over 1700, his only low total early was 937 in his rookie year. But, Smith played for 15 years, playing through the age of 35, which is insane for a RB, and before anyone says his two years in Arizona were worthless, he did break 900 yards in his final season. I think it's possible for Peterson, but it'll take him maintaining his current pace for at least a couple more seasons and achieving similar longevity to Smith. Both are difficult propositions, but then again so is a 2000 yard season mere months removed from an ACL tear, so I'm not ready to rule it out for Peterson.

In response to Bay pointing out that Smith had 252 fewer carries through six seasons, with a little more exploration of the numbers:

oochymp, on 07 January 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

good point, I didn't think to look at carries, but that does explain Smith's drop off after 6 years and makes it easier to think AP can avoid that drop off, but Smith's longevity is still pretty incredible, it's hard to think of any back playing at that high a level at 35

I'm gonna run a few numbers real quick ignoring Smith's pace and just looking at the total, the baseline number is that Peterson needs 9507 yards to top Smith

he's averaged about 1475 per season so far, if he can maintain that pace (which would be ridiculous) he'd break Smith's record in about 6.4 seasons, so at some point in the 8th game of his 7th season from now, at which point Peterson will be 34 (Smith retired at 35) if we give Peterson all of that 7th season then he'll need to average about 1358 yards per season, which I'm not going to call impossible, but it's tough

if we assume Peterson lasts to the same age as Smith, 35, then he's got another 8 seasons, which would mean he'd need to average about 1188 yards per season, which is manageable, but difficult

another point to consider is that Smith started in the league at 21, Peterson started at 22, but both skipped their senior years of college so I'm going to assume they had close to the same mileage coming into the league, so if Peterson lasts as many years as Smith he'll have 9 more seasons, which would mean he'd need to average 1056 yards per season, which is entirely believable, but has Peterson playing until he's 36

Those numbers don't even get into how ridiculous Peterson's (and Smith's) first six seasons were, it's tough to find comparison stats on that but suffice it to say that averaging 1474.83 (Peterson) or 1492.67 (Smith) yards per season through six seasons is amazing

[dutchff7]

oochymp, on 08 January 2013 - 05:07 PM, said:

short answer: probably not, but it could happen

long answer: two posts from another thread on the topic (Original Topic)

In response to Bay pointing out that Smith had 252 fewer carries through six seasons, with a little more exploration of the numbers:

Those numbers don't even get into how ridiculous Peterson's (and Smith's) first six seasons were, it's tough to find comparison stats on that but suffice it to say that averaging 1474.83 (Peterson) or 1492.67 (Smith) yards per season through six seasons is amazing

Averaging that much in your career over 6 seasons is definitely incredible. It was your post that reminded me about this thread so I went back to dig it up.

[oochymp]

to break down Smith's numbers alone gives you the perspective of how hard it'll be for anyone to break his record: to get to 18,355 Smith played for 15 years, let that sink in a bit, he played 15 years at running back, the only RB to play longer is Marcus Allen, who lasted 16 years, only two others hit 14 seasons (Earnest Byner and John Riggins) and only five others even hit 13 [note: as a qualifier for this, I looked up number of seasons with 100+ rushing yards, so this doesn't even mean that those 8 other RBs were really productive over their 13+ years, just that they lasted that long]

Smith averaged 1223.67 yards per season over his 15 seasons, unfortunately I can't find much to give perspective on that, but I think everyone on here knows how impressive that is

Smith played until he was 35, to give some perspective on that, only three other RBs have recorded a season with more than 400 yards rushing [Smith had 937 in his last year] at age 35 or higher and all are HOFers (Allen, Riggins, and John Henry Johnson)

Smith had 11 seasons with over 1000 yards, which is the NFL record, only three other backs in NFL history have 10 (Curtis Martin, Walter Payton, and Barry Sanders) and none have 9, six have 8,and only twenty-four total (including the 10 already mentioned) have more than 5

This post has been edited by oochymp: 08 January 2013 - 05:52 PM

[56AceInDaPlace]

.AirMcNair., on 29 June 2012 - 12:19 AM, said:

People forget to take in to consideration that Emmitt ran behind one of the best lines of all time for quite a while, and Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin kept defenses from completely focusing on him.

We've seen a good amount of RBs "talented enough" to do it. Just none that have been in the same glorious situation Emmitt was.

Edge was for the Colts. I know they had no defense but Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Wayne and a younger Stokley? If he would have stayed i think he could of gotten close at least.

[dutchff7]

While Emmitt wasn't the best (talented) RB to play the game, he was definitely the one of the toughest, consistent, and most of all, durable RBs of all time.

[oochymp]

56AceInDaPlace, on 08 January 2013 - 06:00 PM, said:

Edge was for the Colts. I know they had no defense but Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Wayne and a younger Stokley? If he would have stayed i think he could of gotten close at least.

Edge had 9226 yards in seven seasons with the Colts, an average of 1318 yards per season [Smith had 10160 through seven years, an average of 1451.4 yards per season] at Edge's pace with the Colts he would have had to play almost a full seven more seasons, a total of 14 and playing until he was 34 [see above for how ridiculous even just playing that long would be] and again that's assuming absolutely no drop off in productivity

As it was, Edge only lasted four years after leaving the Colts (and that's including 2009 with the Seahawks [did anyone know he played for the Seahawks? because I didn't] when he ran for a whopping 125 yards in seven games) added only about 3000 yards and finished with a total of 12246, good enough for 11th on the all time list, but well short of Smith's total, I don't think I need to run the numbers to show how insane it would be to get 9130 yards [what Edge would have needed to catch Smith after his time with the Colts] in four years, but if he'd just maintained the same pace through the four he played in the league after leaving the Colts he would have had 14498, certainly a staggering total, and it would have put him at 4th on the all time list, but he'd still be almost 4000 yards short of Smith's record, that's where the durability/longevity comes in

This post has been edited by oochymp: 08 January 2013 - 06:56 PM

[56AceInDaPlace]

oochymp, on 08 January 2013 - 06:55 PM, said:

Edge had 9226 yards in seven seasons with the Colts, an average of 1318 yards per season [Smith had 10160 through seven years, an average of 1451.4 yards per season] at Edge's pace with the Colts he would have had to play almost a full seven more seasons, a total of 14 and playing until he was 34 [see above for how ridiculous even just playing that long would be] and again that's assuming absolutely no drop off in productivity

As it was, Edge only lasted four years after leaving the Colts (and that's including 2009 with the Seahawks [did anyone know he played for the Seahawks? because I didn't] when he ran for a whopping 125 yards in seven games) added only about 3000 yards and finished with a total of 12246, good enough for 11th on the all time list, but well short of Smith's total, I don't think I need to run the numbers to show how insane it would be to get 9130 yards [what Edge would have needed to catch Smith after his time with the Colts] in four years, but if he'd just maintained the same pace through the four he played in the league after leaving the Colts he would have had 14498, certainly a staggering total, and it would have put him at 4th on the all time list, but he'd still be almost 4000 yards short of Smith's record, that's where the durability/longevity comes in

I said he would he would prob get close not break it.

[oochymp]

56AceInDaPlace, on 08 January 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

I said he would he would prob get close not break it.

so 4k yards short is close? or do you think Edge would have lasted longer if he'd stayed with the Colts? and I'm ripping you for suggesting Edge, he is on the top 15 list so he's a good player to look at for what could have been, I'm really just using him as another example of how ridiculous Smith's total is