North Dakota State Against the FBS

[BwareDWare94 723]

Sagarin speaks: How North Dakota State ranks with FBS' best

Craig Bennett, USA TODAY Sports10:11 a.m. EST November 21, 2013

(Photo: Scott Sewell, USA TODAY Sports)

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The parallels are eerie.

Going for a third consecutive national title. A 10-0 record and rarely tested this season. Ranked No. 1 in the polls from the outset. Leader of the highest-rated league.

Each applies to the Alabama Crimson Tide. And the North Dakota State Bison.

One place where the descriptions diverge, however, is in Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings. Alabama is second, and the two-time defending FCS champion Bison are 24th. Use the version of the ratings that Sagarin supplies to the BCS, in which margin of victory is not a factor, and the Bison slip to 29th.

Nevertheless, North Dakota State is in rare air in either spot.

SAGARIN: Team ratings

SAGARIN: Conference ratings

Sagarin says that the best finish in recent years in his ratings by a team in what used to be labeled Division I-AA was Marshall in 1996. The Thundering Herd won the national title while going 15-0 and were 14th in Sagarin's final ratings.

"Hey, they had ... one of the best wide receivers of all time (Randy Moss)," Sagarin says of the quality of that team.

Sagarin is a 1970 mathematics graduate of MIT, and his computer ratings have been a staple of USA TODAY Sports since 1985. From the very start of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998, his college football ratings have been part of the formula that determines the BCS standings.

Another high I-AA finisher was Holy Cross in 1987. The Crusaders went 11-0 but were in a league that didn't allow its members to take part in the playoffs. They featured a two-way phenom named Gordie Lockbaum and were 17th in Sagarin's final ratings list.

North Dakota State is bidding to be the first undefeated FCS champion since that Marshall team in '96.

At 24th in the overall Sagarin rating, NDSU is ahead of five teams that appear in this week's USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll Top 25: No. 16 Fresno State, No. 20 Central Florida, No. 21 Northern Illinois, No. 23 Minnesota and No. 24 Duke.

Boosting the Bisons' Sagarin rating is a season-opening, three-point win on the road against an FBS team, Kansas State.

"And Baylor won by only 10 points (35-25) in the same place," Sagarin says.

He also points out that in the FCS playoffs, North Dakota State presumably will face stronger and stronger teams each round it advances, further boosting its chance of rising in his ratings.

Sagarin accepts that some fans won't be able to fathom that his current ratings would mean North Dakota State would be favored by roughly 2½ points against Oklahoma and 4½ points against Texas on a neutral field.

But he doesn't exactly understand why they take that view.

"People enjoy basketball, but it's kind of a religion to them in football," Sagarin says. "Everyone loves the Butler-Duke game (the 2010 NCAA final that Duke won by two points). People treasure that.

"(But in football) they don't seem to accept that (possibility) intellectually."

I'll be the first to tell you that I don't think NDSU is about to compete with top 10 teams, but from 11 on out, I don't see why NDSU couldn't give them a game, Their defense these past 3 years is going to be remembered for years to come, and they're playing just as well without their two best players. Grant Olson is out with an ACL tear, and Marcus Williams is limited with a knee injury. It's not the same defense, but it's a testament to their depth, the adaptive nature of their schematics, and their teamwork that it's hardly even noticeable that those two are missing right now.

Brock Jensen has finally been allowed to throw the ball, and he's shined in that roll. He's found a #1 receiver in Zach Vraa who's lighting up the FCS, has a trustworthy #2 receiver in Ryan Smith, and a plethora of other young weapons who are going to make Jensen's departure an easier transition for Carson Wentz when he takes the reigns next year.

Their offensive line is fantastic, and I'll tell you right now that Billy Turner (their LT) is going to play in the NFL, and be successful. They have two running backs who'd be just fine at FBS schools. John Crocket, who some think should be the featured back, is as explosive as they come and a tough runner to boot. Sam Ojuri is an even tougher runner who some forget has breakaway speed to go along with it. The Bison sport a two headed monster in the backfield, and let's not forget that Jensen is also very capable, running the ball.

This is the best Bison team of the past three, even if this one doesn't win the title, and it would play with most FBS schools. I don't think it'd have any shot at beating top 10 schools, but it wouldn't surprise me if it made a game out of quite a few of them.

 

 

[OSUViking 505]

lol~

[BwareDWare94 723]

lol~

 

You laugh, but I'm right.

[OSUViking 505]

Because you have an article defending your stance? A conservative can go get a professionally-written thesis on why liberal economics don't work, and why the government having its hands off of economic affairs is more efficient. Until this team actually does throw up a "good fight" against a Top 25 team, I'm not going to believe this. I've seen you hype every FCS team at the mere mention of them, so why should I treat this as any different?

[OSUViking 505]

Their defense these past 3 years is going to be remembered for years to come...

 

Great journalism. Instead of actually providing a reason for me to believe that their defense is great, he just says they will be "remembered for years to come." By whom? Their fans? He talks about their depth, but he gives no actual evidence as to how this defense would legitimately compete on the FBS level.

 

 

 

Brock Jensen has finally been allowed to throw the ball, and he's shined in that roll. He's found a #1 receiver in Zach Vraa who's lighting up the FCS, has a trustworthy #2 receiver in Ryan Smith, and a plethora of other young weapons who are going to make Jensen's departure an easier transition for Carson Wentz when he takes the reigns next year.

 

So... you found a QB who can throw at the FCS level, and he has found his targets. Again, how does this mean they will translate to a team that will compete with the Top 25? It doesn't.

 

 

 

 

Their offensive line is fantastic...

 

Once again! Opinionated!. He gives no proof to support this statement.

 

 

 

They have two running backs who'd be just fine at FBS schools. John Crocket, who some think should be the featured back, is as explosive as they come and a tough runner to boot. Sam Ojuri is an even tougher runner who some forget has breakaway speed to go along with it. The Bison sport a two headed monster in the backfield, and let's not forget that Jensen is also very capable, running the ball.

 

No proof, all opinion.

 

I found a more impartial read while looking up stats for Devin Gardner when someone tried to say he wasn't as bad about turning the ball over as Braxton Miller. This piece literally reads as if someone at the NDSU Athletic Department put this together under the guise of a USA Today Sports piece.

 

 

But watch... they are still awesome just because you say so. :Bwarelogic:

Edited December 2, 2013 by Vikingfan465

[Bucman 891]

NDSU would get smoked by the Bowling Greens of the world.

[AL_Royalty 489]

Truth be told, I have never even heard of this team. However, just because they play in a lesser division doesn't mean that they COULDN'T play with some FBS teams. The flip side of that coin though is just because they beat up on a bunch of FCS teams doesn't mean that they could hang with anyone in the top 25 in the FBS. It' s not as ridiculous as saying that Alabama could beat the Browns, but it's still a pretty far fetched statement. I'd have to see some measurables, stats, competition, GAMES, etc... And I just don't care enough about NDSU to do that kind of digging.

 

The bottom line though, is that we will probably never find out. No FBS top 25 team is going to be the one that gave an FCS team validation, and continuing to beat up on the crap that they play week in and week out isn't going to convince anyone of anything. Beating KSU is impressive for a supposed fish-out-of-water team, but it offers no support one way or the other as to the validity of this slightly absurd argument.

 

As to the article featured in this thread, Vikings 1927+326 is right. It sounds like fan boy stuff and offers no real data to back up the main point that it's attempting to make. It's just a really longwinded opinion piece, which in and of itself is fine, but it's certainly not something that can be used as a spearhead for validating this notion.

 

Also, Bware, unless you wrote the article, what exactly are you right about? You didn't say anything. You just posted a really long "I'm your biggest fan" letter and then claimed to be correct, about what I'm not exactly sure.

[BwareDWare94 723]

 

Their defense these past 3 years is going to be remembered for years to come...

 

Great journalism. Instead of actually providing a reason for me to believe that their defense is great, he just says they will be "remembered for years to come." By whom? Their fans? He talks about their depth, but he gives no actual evidence as to how this defense would legitimately compete on the FBS level.

 

 

 

Brock Jensen has finally been allowed to throw the ball, and he's shined in that roll. He's found a #1 receiver in Zach Vraa who's lighting up the FCS, has a trustworthy #2 receiver in Ryan Smith, and a plethora of other young weapons who are going to make Jensen's departure an easier transition for Carson Wentz when he takes the reigns next year.

 

So... you found a QB who can throw at the FCS level, and he has found his targets. Again, how does this mean they will translate to a team that will compete with the Top 25? It doesn't.

 

 

 

 

Their offensive line is fantastic...

 

Once again! Opinionated!. He gives no proof to support this statement.

 

 

 

They have two running backs who'd be just fine at FBS schools. John Crocket, who some think should be the featured back, is as explosive as they come and a tough runner to boot. Sam Ojuri is an even tougher runner who some forget has breakaway speed to go along with it. The Bison sport a two headed monster in the backfield, and let's not forget that Jensen is also very capable, running the ball.

 

No proof, all opinion.

 

I found a more impartial read while looking up stats for Devin Gardner when someone tried to say he wasn't as bad about turning the ball over as Braxton Miller. This piece literally reads as if someone at the NDSU Athletic Department put this together under the guise of a USA Today Sports piece.

 

 

But watch... they are still awesome just because you say so. :Bwarelogic:

 

 

That last block paragraph that you took all the quotes from...that's me. For some reason I couldn't get it to separate from the actual article. Everything before that is the actual article.

NDSU would get smoked by the Bowling Greens of the world.

 

False. Actually watch them or don't post absurd things like this.

[OSUViking 505]

Actually prove that they wouldn't or stop hyping them to be something they aren't. And whether or not that last piece was journalism or not, its filled with pure homerism, bias, and is devoid of any factual logic.

 

EDIT:

 

If the last block of paragraph really is your own opinion, then I think this puts the nail in the coffin. You failed to provide any evidence as to why NDSU is as good as you say they are, but you managed to make yourself look like their biggest homer. Truth be told, any "credibility" this thread "had" went out the window when you told me those were your own words.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Vikingfan465

[OSUViking 505]

With Minnesota shitting on a team many say is a perennial FCS powerhouse, I'd like to put to rest the notion that Minnesota would get crushed by FCS' top teams.

[BwareDWare94 723]

With Minnesota shitting on a team many say is a perennial FCS powerhouse, I'd like to put to rest the notion that Minnesota would get crushed by FCS' top teams.

 

They're certainly improved from a few years ago. That's for damn sure. I don't like the loss of Nelson, though. He seemed a much better passer than Leidner.

[BwareDWare94 723]

With Minnesota shitting on a team many say is a perennial FCS powerhouse, I'd like to put to rest the notion that Minnesota would get crushed by FCS' top teams.

 

Seriously, dude, what is up with this coaching staff's inability to find an actual, real quarterback? Leidner is so damn bad, it's not even funny.

 

This team is an actual quarterback away from being really damn good.

[OSUViking 505]

 

Seriously, dude, what is up with this coaching staff's inability to find an actual, real quarterback? Leidner is so damn bad, it's not even funny.

 

This team is an actual quarterback away from being really damn good.

 

Apparently one of the nation's top dual-threat QBs from the 2016 class is from Minnesota. The only problem is, I probably couldn't count how many teams he's favoring over Minnesota on my two hands.

 

Minnesota's lack of a QB was seriously exposed today. Usually, they could just run until the other defense gave in. They couldn't do that today, which is rare.

[BwareDWare94 723]

 

Apparently one of the nation's top dual-threat QBs from the 2016 class is from Minnesota. The only problem is, I probably couldn't count how many teams he's favoring over Minnesota on my two hands.

 

Minnesota's lack of a QB was seriously exposed today. Usually, they could just run until the other defense gave in. They couldn't do that today, which is rare.

 

At least Nelson was consistently decent, as a passer. I was baffled when he left, as he pretty much had the starting gig locked up.

[OSUViking 505]

 

At least Nelson was consistently decent, as a passer. I was baffled when he left, as he pretty much had the starting gig locked up.

His fuck up in the bowl last year and Leidner's good showing kind of put that in doubt. I think Nelson wanted to go somewhere that would pass more, as Minnesota is obviously a very run-heavy team.