2014's Texans and Falcons

[KempBolt 498]

So coming into last year, Houston and Atlanta were pretty popular picks to win their division. In some cases, people even had one or both going to the Super Bowl. Obviously the bottom fell out on their respective seasons, and things got ugly in a hurry.

 

So my question is this: who are the teams (one AFC and one NFC) that you think are mostly likely to fall off a cliff?

 

This isn't necessarily the same as asking which PO team from last doesn't make it this year. Because of a lot of media/fans are already down on or skeptical of teams that made the PO's last year (e.g. Chiefs, Chargers, Panthers, etc).

 

The difference is this: I'm asking which teams, that are generally regarded as PO favorites coming into this season, do you think are going to majorly disappoint.

 

 

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

Bengals.

 

Eagles.

 

NFL now has plenty of tape and film to see what Chip Kelly does, and the Eagles defense is still very shaky and I don't buy into Nick Foles. Plus they are the Eagles.

 

The Bengals...because I still believe the Steelers are better than them and that the Ravens, could just as well be too.

 

Andy Dalton falls into...terrible mediocrity.

[KempBolt 498]

AFC:

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Why they're my pick:

 

• Coordinator Losses- I'm sure that I won't find anyone to argue that losing Mike Zimmer isn't significant. But it does seem like Jay Gruden is being regarded as some kind of also-ran who was thankfully run out of town, rather than a really good OC who was hired away to be a head coach. I don't think he gets enough credit for putting together such an effective offense with Andy Dalton at the helm. I'm not totally discounting the chance that Hue Jackson does well as his replacement, but I don't think it should be a foregone conclusion that he's as good as his predecessor.
• Defensive Questions- The Bengals fielded a nasty stop unit last year that rated top 5 in yardage and scoring. But I see some trends that could result in regression. The big one was mentioned above-- no more Mike Zimmer. But beyond that you have key players who are trying to come back off injury (Hall and Atkins). More importantly, they're getting old at some important spots. Peko and Newman in particular are on the decline, and it's unclear whether younger players (Thompson, Kirkpatrick) are ready for bigger roles, or a rookie (Dennard) will be able to step in effectively from week one. Lastly, Michael Johnson has departed with no comparable replacement.
• Andrew Gregory Dalton- Like many non-Bengals fans (and some Bengals fans), I am not a believer in Dalton. And I'm not certain that the Bengals are either (no extension). I can see the logic in the idea that if Jackson has the team running more, Dalton may become more efficient. But that kind of gets to the problem: they are probably going to have to hide Dalton rather than feature him. And I don't see much sustained offensive success around the league from teams with sub-par QB play. Lastly, as mentioned above, I think Gruden did an amazing job putting a really good offense together with Dalton and I'm not sold that Jackson will be able to match that right away.
• The Division- The Steelers started really slow, but ended the year on an absolute tear having figured out their offensive issues. If they pick up where they left off, they're going to be a really tough team to deal with. Furthermore, I think some of the moves that the Ravens made this offseason will go a long way towards fixing their issues. And these are two teams that Cincy was only able to split with last year.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Colts, Cardinals

 

With the Colts I'm probably wrong, but their method of winning the last two years is pretty unsustainable. I know they have an easy schedule so I'm probably way off the mark with this one, but, oh well.

 

The Cardinals because they've received a lot of praise here, and I don't see them being that good.

[FartWaffles 1,857]

More of a gut feeling than anything else, but I could see the Broncos, 49ers, and Eagles falling on their faces this year.

[Cherry 1,302]

To the Bengals talk; yes the Bengals will drop to around 9-7. But they won't have a meltdown like Texans or Falcons. The Bengals all-around have too much talent to simply drop off. The departure of Michael Johnson hurts but he is replaceable in a timeshare between Gilberry, Hunt, and Clark. Vincent Rey could replace Maualuga at MLB which is well-deserved. Lamur is healthy now and has coaches raving about him. Our secondary is better than ever. Kirkpatrick stepped up near the end last year. Hall is healthy again. Newman is old but has an insane playmaking ability. Dennard could become a starter day one. Pacman is solid. Nelson is as always, a star at safety. Iloka is a good running partner. Our only major question is Dalton and LG/C. Robinson and Bodine should be fine at center. Boling will be a 50/50 but I doubt it'll hurt us that bad. Dalton is the major issue; and as long as Dalton does his usual "Play amazing one Sunday, play shitty the next." We should scrape into the playoffs.

 

I think it will be the Colts. That secondary is weak outside of Vontae Davis. They have hardly any linebackers and Mathis is suspended. Their trenches are average at best, and trash at worst. Ballard is hurt. Bradshaw is far from a starter and is always hurt. Richardson is... well, Richardson. Only thing I see happening is Luck playing catch with Nicks, Hilton, and Wayne every Sunday. We've seen how bad the Colts can be (See: Cardinals and Rams) and we've seen how good they can be (See:Seahawks and 49ers). I think we'll see bad Colts this year.

[KempBolt 498]

To the Bengals talk; yes the Bengals will drop to around 9-7. But they won't have a meltdown like Texans or Falcons. The Bengals all-around have too much talent to simply drop off. The departure of Michael Johnson hurts but he is replaceable in a timeshare between Gilberry, Hunt, and Clark. Vincent Rey could replace Maualuga at MLB which is well-deserved. Lamur is healthy now and has coaches raving about him. Our secondary is better than ever. Kirkpatrick stepped up near the end last year. Hall is healthy again. Newman is old but has an insane playmaking ability. Dennard could become a starter day one. Pacman is solid. Nelson is as always, a star at safety. Iloka is a good running partner. Our only major question is Dalton and LG/C. Robinson and Bodine should be fine at center. Boling will be a 50/50 but I doubt it'll hurt us that bad. Dalton is the major issue; and as long as Dalton does his usual "Play amazing one Sunday, play shitty the next." We should scrape into the playoffs.

 

I think it will be the Colts. That secondary is weak outside of Vontae Davis. They have hardly any linebackers and Mathis is suspended. Their trenches are average at best, and trash at worst. Ballard is hurt. Bradshaw is far from a starter and is always hurt. Richardson is... well, Richardson. Only thing I see happening is Luck playing catch with Nicks, Hilton, and Wayne every Sunday. We've seen how bad the Colts can be (See: Cardinals and Rams) and we've seen how good they can be (See:Seahawks and 49ers). I think we'll see bad Colts this year.

 

This is exactly what Houston and Atlanta fans would have said last offseason.

 

I'm not saying that a melt down is likely. I actually think you're 9-7 prediction is more realistic than sub 8-8. But if I'm going to pick on, it Cincy for the reasons given.

 

Thanks for your thoughts on Indy. That's another solid choice.

[Cherry 1,302]

 

This is exactly what Houston and Atlanta fans would have said last offseason.

 

I'm not saying that a melt down is likely. I actually think you're 9-7 prediction is more realistic than sub 8-8. But if I'm going to pick on, it Cincy for the reasons given.

 

Thanks for your thoughts on Indy. That's another solid choice.

Trying to see clearly because I get the point of "This is exactly what Texans/Falcons fans said" but if we do go down we will be around 6-10. I can't see a fullblown meltdown like Texans and Falcons, you know?

[KempBolt 498]

NFC:

 

Arizona Cardinals*

 

Why they're my pick:

 

• Defensive Losses- Anyone whose read my takes on the Cards probably already knows that I view the losses of both Washington and Dansby as hugely important and potentially crippling. I believe that those losses, along with the aging of some other key players (Abraham and Dockett) could lead to a big, and sudden drop off from the front 7. There's a real scenario wherein Campbell is their only difference maker out of the whole defensive front. And there isn't a whole lot of young talent that I can really see coming up through the ranks to make a big difference. If the front 7 takes a turn for the worst, I don't think the potential upgrades in the secondary will matter.
• Running Game- Arizona featured a really poor rushing offense last season, both in terms of yardage and efficiency. Ellington helped, and he's a nice player, but I still don't think he's a guy that you build a running game around. And I think he'll end up on IR if you try to (he's slight and has a history of concussions). The problem is that there isn't much behind him to try and put together a solid committee. So if Ellington winds up on the sideline, the Arizona offense might become even more one dimensional than they were last year.
• Carson Hilton Palmer- Palmer was a lot better last year than I expected, but even then his TD-INT ratio was nearly 1-1 at 24 and 22. At 35, with a history of fairly serious injuries, and with 100 more hits on his body from last year, I have a really hard time thinking that he won't continue to decline. I respect the OL additions that they've made, but I can easily envision a season in which Palmer simply continues to get worse in his own right even at the protection improves (and it bears mentioning that we don't know what Cooper is at this level, he and Veldheer are coming off IR, and the right side is still suspect).

 

 

*I struggled with whether or not Arizona was a valid choice according to my own criteria. But I decided that, because they're a popular WC choice, had 10 wins last year, and appeared in the top 12 or better of every power rankings TGP produced (other than my own), they could fairly fit into this category.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I'll go with Arizona because I think while their defense is great, Carson Palmer sucks, and their O-line still isn't great. They could be a mirror image of the 2013 Texans, IMO.

[KempBolt 498]

Trying to see clearly because I get the point of "This is exactly what Texans/Falcons fans said" but if we do go down we will be around 6-10. I can't see a fullblown meltdown like Texans and Falcons, you know?

 

Yeah, I get it. In your shoes, I'd be saying the same. These questions are hard, because you're truly trying to predict the unexpected.

[BwareDWare94 723]

AFC:

Colts--While I appreciate what they're building, their team still leaves much to be desired at key positions, and I firmly believe that the Texans will have a rebound year, as long as Fitzpatrick keeps the turnovers to a minimum. I don't trust Luck's weapons to stay healthy, nor do I simply assume that Reggie Wayne will be the same player. Losing Donald Brown, who provided something that resembled dependability at running back, is also going to be a huge loss unless Trent Richardson resuscitates the cadaver that is his NFL career.

 

NFC:

Bears--People are underestimating how competitive the NFC North is going to be this year, and while Chicago isn't a hugely popular pick because of their cheese loving rivals, they should, by all accounts, be a pretty damn good team. At the same time--the Lions got better, and the Vikings got significantly better and somehow managed to build a competent coaching staff. The NFC North isn't up for grabs, per se, but one of its top 2 teams is going to struggle with DET and MIN and miss out on a potentially great season, because of it.

Edited July 29, 2014 by BwareDWare94

[RazorStar 4,025]

The Eagles and Colts are gonna have a big falling out. They had low turnover rates last year, but those trends aren't gonna hold with their young QB's. Prepare for a major fall off.

[.AirMcNair. 1,232]

The Eagles and Colts are gonna have a big falling out. They had low turnover rates last year, but those trends aren't gonna hold with their young QB's. Prepare for a major fall off.

 

In the case of Luck, from year 1 to year 2 he made a giant improvement in taking care of the ball, why should regression be expected in that regard, at least for him?

[RazorStar 4,025]

Just in terms of moving back to the norm. Luck has to continue taking large strides forward, and while he should keep improving, his INT rate was abnormally low and will move back to a mean, along with team fumbles.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

The Colts went from being a negative T/O differential team to a top 3 after one year. Turnover margins from one year to the next tend to always be inconsistent, but when a team goes from having a super bad TO margin, to one of the best in the league... It should automatically raise a red flag **cough cough** Chiefs **cough cough**.

 

More times then not the following season they fall back down, not saying its gonna be a huge dropoff.... But nowhere near as good. The same can be said vice versa with teams with a terrible differential one year.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

If it's the I'll be very happy

[Dutch 874]

If it's the I'll be very happy

 

[KempBolt 498]

The Eagles and Colts are gonna have a big falling out. They had low turnover rates last year, but those trends aren't gonna hold with their young QB's. Prepare for a major fall off.

The Eagles were actually -10 IIRC.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

The Eagles were pretty much like KC. They went from being second to last to being at the top. At least according to ESPN.

Edited July 29, 2014 by DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F

[KempBolt 498]

The Eagles were pretty much like KC. They went from being second to last to being at the top. At least according to ESPN.

 

Yep, you're right. My bust.