Razor's 2014 QB Rankings

[RazorStar 4,025]

Now with running stats! I remember last year when I was making these I got the complaint "Well why not show running performance?" So I decided that's a good idea, let's see if I can implement this without it being super awkward. After adding data for sacks, fumbles, and rushing yards + TD's, I've come up with a system that doesn't completely bite.

 

QB's are measured on 4 parameters.

1. Modified Completion Percentage. This is Completion Percentage with the addition of sacks as incomplete passes, and runs as completed passes. Factoring sacks and rushing attempts into the equation tanks most efficiency stats, but it generally brings up completion percentage.

 

2. Modified TD/ATT Percentage. Same as before, Rushing and Passing TD's compared to passes thrown, sacks and rushing attempts. Rewards guys who don't get TD credit for their one yard sneaks, also Cam Newton, probably.

 

3. Modified Turnover/Attempt Percentage. Now including fumbles. All of them, even the ones that the offense recovers. Why? My logic on this is that recovering a fumble is basically a coin flip. If you lose the ball you're only getting lucky so often. I could have made fumbles equivalent to half an INT, but I felt like this system would make more sense. If someone gives me a good argument otherwise, I can consider adjusting it.

 

4. Modified Yards per Attempt. Rushing Yards + Passing Yards - Sack Yards divided by rushing attempts, passing attempts and sacks. This stat tanks for nearly everyone, sack yards are a big hit to this. I understand not all offensive lines are built the same, but when you compare Chad Henne to Drew Stanton, there's enough of a discrepancy between good and bad QB's with roughly equivalent lines. 6.0 YPA is terrible using raw passer numbers, but with this modification it becomes roughly the average. So keep that in mind.

 

Spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DRR_Gp62hnXr884hPQZwtpXWkXdbtoTsW6s3k_Xu0f4/edit?usp=sharing

 

Week 3 Rankings:

1. Peyton Manning (25)
2. Kirk Cousins (27)
3. Matt Ryan (28)
4. Andrew Luck (32)
5. Russell Wilson (34)
6. Drew Brees (37)
7. Philip Rivers (39)
8. Andy Dalton (44)
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (48)
10. Austin Davis (52)
11. Colin Kaepernick (55)
12. Brian Hoyer (58)
13. Jay Cutler (60)
14. EJ Manuel (61)
15. Ben Roeth (67)
16. Nick Foles (69)
17. Tony Romo (70)
18t. Cam Newton (73)
18t. Joe Flacco (73)
20t. Matt Stafford (75)
20t. Eli Manning (75)
22. Geno Smith (76)
23. Drew Stanton (80)
24. Aaron Rodgers (83)
25. Derek Carr (84)
26. Alex Smith (87)
27. Josh McCown (90)
28. Chad Henne (94)
29. Tom Brady (103)
30t. Jake Locker (104)
30t. Ryan Tannehill (104)
32. Matt Cassel (105)

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

When does Bortles get to qualify?

[RazorStar 4,025]

When a QB would qualify for passer rating (14 attempts per game) or if a QB has 100 passing attempts, then they'll be permanent fixtures on this list.

Edited September 23, 2014 by RazorStar

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Gotcha. With the way the Jags defense is playing going against San Diego's offense and Rivers I think 76 attempts isn't out of the realms of possibility.

[BarrelofHobos 20]

Mitt Rayn numbah 1

[FartWaffles 1,857]

9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (48)

 

Going to be interesting to see how bad of a fall Pickztragic takes from now to the end of the season.

[blotsfan 2,112]

Similar to my feelings about EJ's spot.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Another week down, and we have a new leader. Andrew Luck is starting to live up to the hype.Move out of the way Dutch, I need to get my slurp on! >_> just kidding, I will probably unconditionally hate Luck until he retires.

 

Week 4 QB Rankings

 

1. Andrew Luck (24) [+3]
2. Peyton Manning (28) [-1]
3. Philip Rivers (31) [+4]
4. Russell Wilson (35) [+1]
5. Matt Ryan (37) [-2]
6. Drew Brees (40)
7. Andy Dalton (47) [+1]
8t. Tony Romo (52) [+9]
8t. Joe Flacco (52) [+10]
10. Aaron Rodgers (54) [+14]
11t. Ryan Fitzpatrick (58) [-2]
11t. Blake Bortles (58) [NR]
13t. Austin Davis (59) [-3]
13t. Eli Manning (59) [+7]
15t. Matt Stafford (61) [+5]
15t. Brian Hoyer (61) [-3]
17. Colin Kaepernick (66) [-6]
18t. Kirk Cousins (67) [-16]
18t. Alex Smith (67) [+8]
20. Ben Roeth (69) [-5]
21. Jay Cutler (72) [-8]
22. Mike Glennon (79) [NR]
23. Cam Newton (85) [-5]
24. Drew Stanton (88) [-1]
25t. EJ Manuel (92) [-11]
25t. Derek Carr (92)
27t. Josh McCown (96)
27t. Ryan Tannehill (96) [+3]
29. Nick Foles (99) [-13]
30. Geno Smith (100) [-8]
31. Chad Henne (101) [-3]
32. Jake Locker (114) [-2]
33. Matt Cassel (119) [-1]
34. Tom Brady (122) [-5]

[Sarge+ 3,436]

Never thought I'd see the day I get to say.

 

l m a o Tom Brady

 

>_>

[Thanatos 2,847]

Not sure about fumbles that are recovered being in here.

 

For example, Newton had a fumble last Sunday against Baltimore where the snap was bobbled, but there was no way anyone was getting to that ball except Newton.

 

Not all fumbles are a 50-50 proposition.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Yeah but for every fumble that only the offense can really recover, there are the alternates where the fumbles are only recoverable by the opposition.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Most QB fumbles are the fault of the OL. I think they should be weighed lower than INTs.

[RazorStar 4,025]

I've updated the spreadsheet for fumbles at half of the value of an INT. Philip Rivers jumps up to first, and there are a few small changes made across the board.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Nice, I like the changes. Do you feel that Sacks may be a bit too harsh on the rankings also?

[RazorStar 4,025]

I think I need to tweak their overall impact, but they still should be included. To some extent QB who get sacked more are worse than those who don't, provided they have the same level of offensive line. No one should fault Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers for getting destroyed early in their careers because they had shitty offensive lines, but Bortles is already looking like he'll be sacked less than Henne on average with the same line in front of them.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

[blotsfan 2,112]

Not to mention the reason Roethlisberger gets sacked so much is also his biggest asset. That he can hold on to the ball to wait for a play. Yeah it leads to him getting sacked more but without that he's an average at best QB

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Average at best? Please.

 

Average QBs don't make these throws:

 

And it should be noted that on 1st and Goal in XLIII, Ben made that exact same throw to Holmes on the left, but Holmes let it go through his hands.

 

Sidearm TD as he's being tackled against Carolina this year:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap3000000398787/Wk-3-Can-t-Miss-Play-Corner-pocket

 

 

 

 

inb4 the BC comparisons for homer videos. I'm illustrating how absurd blotsfan's statement is.

Edited October 3, 2014 by Zack_of_Steel

[blotsfan 2,112]

Let me rephrase that:

He would've played like an average qb at best given the dumpster fire that is Pittsburghs offensive line

[RazorStar 4,025]

There has been one more update to this formula, and I hope it hammers it out so sack totals aren't overly pervasive when it comes to grading out QB's. The YPA formula has changed to exclude sacks as attempts. That way QB's aren't punished for the amount of times they get sacked, only for the yards they lose due to those sacks. This should hopefully balance out the bad lines hampering good QB's, and good lines doing the opposite for not as good QB's.

 

Spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DRR_Gp62hnXr884hPQZwtpXWkXdbtoTsW6s3k_Xu0f4/edit?usp=sharing

 

Week 5 Rankings:

1. Philip Rivers 19
2. Russell Wilson 22
3. Peyton Manning 25
4. Aaron Rodgers 33
5. Andy Dalton 35
6. Andrew Luck 38
7t. Matt Ryan 48
7t. Brian Hoyer 48
9. Tony Romo 50
10. Colin Kaepernick 56
11t. Austin Davis 57
11t. Ben Roeth 57
11t. Drew Brees 57
14. Eli Manning 58
15. Kirk Cousins 62
16t. Ryan Fitzpatrick 65
16t. Jay Cutler 65
18. Alex Smith 69
19. Joe Flacco 71
20. Matt Stafford 72
21. Cam Newton 76
22. Mike Glennon 80
23t. EJ Manuel 90
23t. Ryan Tannehill 90
25. Blake Bortles 91
26. Jake Locker 93
27. Drew Stanton 95
28. Derek Carr 98
29t. Nick Foles 100
29t. Tom Brady 100
31. Chad Henne 101
32. Geno Smith 109
33. Matt Cassel 114

[RazorStar 4,025]

New page, new rankings. Rivers is still sitting pretty at the top, but there's a lot of competition from spots 3 to 8...

 

WEEK 6 QB Rankings
1. Philip Rivers 14
2. Peyton Manning 22 (+1)
3. Andy Dalton 35 (+2)
4t. Andrew Luck 37 (+2)
4t. Aaron Rodgers 37
6. Russell Wilson 38 (-4)
7. Joe Flacco 40 (+12)
8. Colin Kaepernick 41 (+2)
9. Tony Romo 48
10. Brian Hoyer 50 (-3)
11t. Matt Ryan 52 (-4)
11t. Jay Cutler 52 (+5)
13. Drew Brees 56 (-2)
14. Cam Newton 62 (+7)
15. Kirk Cousins 65
16. Alex Smith 68 (+2)
17. Eli Manning 69 (-3)
18t. Ryan Fitzpatrick 70 (-2)
18t. Tom Brady 70 (+11)
20. Ben Roeth 72 (-9)
21. Derek Carr 79 (+7)
22. Matt Stafford 81 (-2)
23. Mike Glennon 82 (-1)
24. Austin Davis 84 (-13)
25. Blake Bortles 87
26. Ryan Tannehill 93 (-3)
27. Drew Stanton 95
28. Teddy Bridgewater 97 (NR)
29t. Nick Foles 98
29t. EJ Manuel 98 (-6)
31. Jake Locker 99 (-5)
32. Geno Smith 121

Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer and Charlie Whitehurst are still a few throws away from qualifying for this list.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

[Thanatos 2,847]

Ben is obviously going to go way up. I can't help but feel that this are off regarding a few players.

 

Is Kaep really playing like a top-10 QB? Is Dalton really playing like a top-5 QB?

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Bae Bortles coming for that 32nd spot

[Bay 2,003]

Bae Bortles coming for that 32nd spot

Not as long as Geno exists