Week 5 Predictions: NFC North

[BwareDWare94 723]

Thursday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

 

What to Expect:

Vikings fans have every excuse to be overly excited about their squad after they convincingly beat an Atlanta team that finished the game with a tight end at a tackle position and a defense that's best described as a bargain brand paper towel exposed to water. Nevertheless, the debut of Teddy Bridgewater as the starter--where he should have been from opening day--was electrifying and we'd be ignorant if we were to assume that it was all because of a horrid defense. Bridgewater continually hit receivers in stride, went through his progressions without getting happy feet, and eluded pressure as if it was natural to him. That kind of play at quarterback hasn't been seen in Minnesota in eight to ten years, save for a single season with the good Brett Favre at the helm. Along with Bridgewater's excellent play, the Vikings potentially have a two-headed monster at tailback with the lightning bolt that is Jerick McKinnon and the rumbling juggernaut they call Matt Asiata. What remains to be seen if these two will only look that good against a bad defense or if this performance will carry over. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings go through short spurts of warm butter play, where the opposing offense looks unstoppable. Then they seem to settle in and play spectacularly for the rest of the half. Case in point, the second and fourth quarters of this week's game. Atlanta looked unstoppable for about a quarter, only to fall into the clamps of this Harrison Smith led Vikings defense. Don't look know, but the third year safety is making his case for best safety in the league. Last but not least we have rookie linebacker Anthony Barr, who's combination of speed and size makes him exponentially dangerous to the opposition. I don't know if he's going to be in the discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but he should be. Things are looking up in the Twin Cities, but this team still has its flaws and fans should scale their excitement down, a bit.

 

The Green Bay Packers are proof that with an elite and mobile quarterback, all things can be overcome. Aaron Rodgers is the kind of player that can transcend weaknesses in other areas, like the offensive line. The cheeseheads looked dead in the water in Detroit, only to travel to Chicago this past week and put a beatdown on a Bears squad that had to know that Cutler was due for an implosion performance. Nevertheless, a 38-17 stomping of Chicago in Chicago is a very impressive performance by the green and gold. Rodgers looked sharp all over again, but the lack of a running game has all of us Eddie Lacy supporters scratching our heads. Lacy is a big, shifty running back who we'd think could compensate a bit for a porous offensive line, but perhaps the Packers are so decimated there that it simply doesn't matter who's lining up at tailback. All things considered, the Packers offense has been inconsistent so far, racking up a mere 23 points in their two losses but 69 points in their two wins. Defensively, the Packers have actually been pretty stout over the past two weeks, save a for a couple of early drives by the Bears. Nevertheless, 19 and 17 are point totals for the opposition that Aaron Rodgers can generally overcome quite easily. Dom Capers has seen more than his fair share of criticism over the past few seasons, and I think it's time to give him his due, considering the weak areas he's had to work with over the past few seasons. So far so good for Green Bay on defense.

Quick note: this prediction stands regardless of who plays QB for the Vikings. Ponder isn't great, but he's not nearly as bad as casual fans think.

Prediction: Packers 30 Vikings 27

Overall, the Packers defense will bring Vikings fans back down to earth about Teddy Bridgewater, if he plays. The kid is as good as advertised, but he's not going to be golden week in and week out. He'll be good enough to keep the Vikes in the game, but Aaron Rodgers will be better. I expect another great performance from Matt Asiata, as the Packers will game plan to keep McKinnon under wraps, which they'll be able to do, for the most part. I expect Cordarrelle Patterson to make an appearance, but again, this is a player that Vikings fans need to pump the brakes on. He's too raw at WR to be a constant game changer, catching passes. Patterson will make a splash play or two against Green Bay, but don't be surprised if they aren't pass plays. Overall, the Packers defense makes a late stop after they go up 3. I'm looking for a good Thursday Night game, but won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

 

 

Sunday: Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

 

What to Expect:

It's hard to take the Bears too seriously when they're such a Jekyll and Hyde type of squad. There's no reason they shouldn't have been able to stay in the game last week, and yet an implosion occurred, at home. All things considered, that's Jay Cutler, and let me tell you folks something--I honestly wonder if his diabetes causes some of these bad games. The disease is nearly impossible to control, and blood sugar levels are constantly rising and falling. It affects how a person feels, physically, and can even alter their eyesight if blood sugar drops low enough. There's no way, even with supreme medical care, that Jay Cutler goes through every single game without changes in the way he feels. I know this seems irrelevant, and he'd never acknowledge it because people who know nothing about diabetes would be all over him. I think it's important that we keep what he deals with on a day by day basis in perspective. Diabetes completely fucks with you, and Cutler deals with Type I, which is worse, not to mention he can't exactly use a pump or side monitor when he's playing football. Cutler relies on injections, which I've seen firsthand how little they do to keep a person from going into spurts where they feel horrible, physically. Anyway, the Bears are on their way to being nearly unstoppable on offense outside of these bad Cutler stretches. Matt Forte is coming into his own, as we all expected, and Martellus Bennett is having a hell of year. As long as these two are playing well, expect Marshall and Jeffrey to continue to play well, especially once they both get healthy. Defensively, the Bears also had an implosion on that side of the ball, but that's going to happen every now and then with so many injuries. Don't expect consistency from the Bears defense until some players get healthy or enough time has passed for players to get accustomed to their roles.

 

The Carolina Panthers looked primed to take control of the NFC South after the first two weeks of the season, but the last two have proven to be rough outings against one of the toughest divisions in the league, the AFC North. Offensively, the Panthers are down to a running back whose name I can't remember and don't care to look up. Reaves, or something. On the outside, Jerricho Cotchery is catching first downs at a pretty good clip, and Kelvin Benjamin is a splash play waiting to happen in every single game. Last but not least, Cam still has safety blanket Greg Olsen, who continues to be a very good tight end in this league. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Cam's surgically repaired ankle is hindering his mobility and his lingering rib injury has put a constant look of pain on the quarterback's face when he's on the field. He's not allowed to be himself behind a patchwork offensive line, and at this point, the Panthers would be wise to rest Cam for a few games, because they're not in a good place on the other side of the ball, either. Defensively, the Panthers dearly miss Greg Hardy, who has either created a victim we must stand up for in his ex girlfriend, or has fallen victim to a justice system that does not (and should not) tolerate domestic violence, but unfortunately is inclined to think the defendant is guilty before they even hear testimony, because of that. It's hard to know what to think about Greg Hardy. He's either a horrible individual or is dating the wrong kind of women. Needless to say, his situation sounds somewhat fishy, and while he's trying to get his verdict overturned and taken to a jury trial, there's no reason the Panthers should feel pressured to deactivate him/put him on the exempt list. Where's this pressure for the 49ers with Ray McDonald? Nevertheless, Hardy's absence has proven fatal to this Panthers defense, as it can't generate a pass rush and therefore it's lackluster secondary has been exposed for two consecutive weeks.

Prediction: Bears 31 Panthers 20

Without a pass rush, there's no reason that Jay Cutler won't carve up this Panthers defense. Without a healthy Cam Newton, and with a bad offensive line, there's no reason Mel Tucker won't be able to create a gameplan that will do just enough to get this patched up Bears defense through this week.


Sunday: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

 

What to Expect:

The Lions have resurfaced nicely after a piss poor performance against the Panthers in week 2, thoroughly beating the Packers and surviving a desperate Jets squad this past weekend. Offensively, and it surprises me to say this, but Matt Stafford FINALLY looked for his other weapons, last week, tossing TD passes to Jeremy Ross and Eric Ebron, and I'm honestly curious as to whether that was Ross's first reception with the Lions. Reggie Bush is disappearing, but that doesn't matter because Joique Bell deserves more carries, anyway. It'll be interesting to see if Ebron emerges, now, as he's got plenty of potential. Defensively, the Lions have been pretty solid so far, and I'm very impressed with their discipline under Jim Caldwell, even if I don't believe in Caldwell as a long-term coach, as I don't believe in the Tony Dungy method of emotionless coaching. Nevertheless, the Lions are playing well, altogether, and have pulled off three impressive wins in the early season, but let's all hit the same old refrain at the peak of our voices when we say we've seen this before.

 

The Bills looked promising to start the season, with two nice wins against Chicago and Miami. Two losses have followed against very good San Diego and Houston teams, and the coaching staff has gone the cowardly route and pulled the quarterback, because, you know, that's the easiest way to make a scapegoat and pretend that one guy is the entire basis for their problems. I'm not expecting much from Kyle Orton, because he's Kyle Orton, and he hasn't been with the team long enough to truly make any difference. The Bills sport a lot of nice weapons on offense, from Watkins and Woods to Jackson and Spiller (Jackson first because he's the better back). At the same time, Neckbeard is not the kind of quarterback that is going to change anything, drastically, for this offense. Marrone and his staff are cowards for giving up on a kid who I don't think has even started a full season, yet. They did not give EJ Manuel enough time, and now they'll have to eat crow when they're forced to start him later in the season when Orton underwhelms, to nobody's surprise. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills have been very solid so far--holding a Philip Rivers led offense to 22 points in week 3 was impressive, and with a competent offense would have resulted in a win. It all comes down to which quarterback can move this offense against better teams, and I'm not sure that guy's on the roster.

Prediction: Lions 34 Bills 24

Orton's going to turn the ball over and put their defense in bad spots, leading to the most points they've allowed this season. Calvin Johnson is going to go off for 2 touchdowns, because he's due for a great performance, and I expect Sammy Watkins to have a good game, too, but it won't be enough.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Agree with all predictions.

[butta54 371]

I'M LATE! I'M LATE!

 

 

Vikings @ Packers:

 

Well starting so late I get the added benefit of knowing that TB-Water won't be playing tonight which I believe puts this game squarely into the Packers' hands.

 

We have a Vikings team coming off a win and exciting performance from first-time starter TB-Water. In my last week's predicition I felt the Vikings could get rolling if the "bad" Falcons' defense showed up and that is exactly what happened. The Vikings' defense is a legit bend but don't break unit. While Matt Ryan had a pretty good day, they made enough big plays to allow their team to win.

 

We have a Packers team fresh off a beatdown of my Chicago Bears. To be a 100% fair I think the Bears beat themselves more then the Packers beat them, but the Packers def did their job and capitalized on mistakes which is always the sign of a good team. The Pack gave up over 500yds of offense, and without some shooting of themselves in the foot the Bears would have been in a shoot-out.

 

Looking at the Packers' offense A-Rod is always going to have a chance to heat up against any defense. As far as I can tell the run game will be pretty shut down once again against Minnesota. Making A-Rod the heart and soul of the team again. The Vikings have a young and opportunistic secondary, but I don't see them making A-Rod force anything he doesn't want to throw. This leaves the Vikings' pass rush as the key factor. The only way A-Rod will make mistakes is if the pass rush speeds up his clock or affect this throwing path by getting hits. If the pocket stays clean (despite the rain) I think the Packers will be able to shred the VIkings pass defense.

 

For the Vikings TB-Water is out for the night and used-to-be starter Cassel is hurt for the year. SO you turn to who else but the former first-round QB Christian Ponder. While the Vikings want nothing more than to forget about this mistake he seems to always start some games. The run game was the key to the Vikings offense that was built around AP....then AP was taken out and the run game was EVEN more important.....then the starting QB got hurt and the run game was SUPER important.......then the rookie back-up is out so the run game is ULTRA MEGA SUPER important? Green Bay is almost last against the run and didn't look any better against the Bears, so I look for the young backfield of Asiata and McKinnon to get all the carries they can handle. If Green Bay can rally like they did against Detroit and force CHRISTIAN PONDER TO THROW IN THE RAIN it would be an easy win.

 

In the end I don't see the Green Bay Cheeseheads stopping the run attack consistently enough to cause three and outs making this a competitive game as the VIkes look to play ball control and keep A-Rod on the bench. This is Green Bay's game unless A-Rod is affect by the rain and gives up the ball or has to run more than usual. Key to this game is Aaron Rodgers simple and plain, if he can play his game uninterrupted the Packers will win easily.

 

 

Bears @ Panthers:

 

We have a Chicago Bears team coming off a nothing less than humiliating loss to their division rival Packers. The pass rush was sorry, the secondary was overwhelmed, and the offense couldn't seal the deal because they weren't on the same page all day. This is a game where the Bears are looking to finally put some of the pieces together as some starters will hopefully be returning to the lineup.

 

We have a Carolina Panthers team that looks like the wheels are falling off. The top ranked defensive unit from last year was supposed to carry the team to victories, but instead it has been hand-delivering some defeats. The offensive line has not been able to protect Cam Newton who was already the most hit QB coming in and is currently banged up. The run game is missing THREE starters and the receivers aren't at all that talented to win consistently.

 

A bad Panthers' offensive line will go against a under-achieving Bears' defensive line. I do believe Carolina has all the tools to neutralize the pass rush and give Cam Newton a little more time then he's had recently. If Cam is at all healed enough to be a threat running the ball then it will cause a huge mismatch. Without the starting backs (and even with them) Carolina hasn't been in sync on the ground recently and the Bears have improved their run defense dramatically. I look for the Panthers to try and push the run game early just to see how disciplined the Bears are. If the run game is stopped I feel the Panthers will pull out some gadget plays to get Kelvin Benjamin the ball in space or go short screen game to make up for the run game. With the poor play at safety for the Bears I won't rule out some deep shots all night.

 

The Bears have a high-powered offense that can rack up yards, get first-downs, but hasn't been able to put up points on long drives. Marshall and Jeffery are close to top form and should create struggles for the secondary, and Bennett who is playing pro-bowl ball will have a field day if the Panthers decide to try and blitzing. The question is on the run game of the Bears. Forte will get fed the ball early to test just how weak the run defense has become in Carolina, but if the Panthers for some reason find their run fits again it will go a long way to slowing down the bleeding. Even if the Bears go one dimensional with the pass they are very hard to stop, but if the run game is rolling too then it will be a real problem so the Panthers need to stuff Forte. We might have two starting offensive linemen returning in Slauson and Garza, but Bushrod seems to be on his way out with a injury. If that is the case I still like the o-line in a battle against a Carolina defensive line that just doesn't have the confidence it once did with Greg Hardy out there.

 

In the end I feel this is a perfect game for the Bears to strike back and get all three phases clicking and kick a team while they are down. Cam is good and on his way to being great, but he won't win games by himself yet. The Bears have an above average run defense and a shaky, but opportunistic pass defense so if the Panthers want to test them, they will have to keep the pass rush off of Cam and idk if they can. The key to this game is the run game for both teams. If the Bears get their run game going it will spell a long night for the Panthers who can only win by hoping for a shoot out. If the Panthers get their run game going then they can control the clock and protect Cam a little more and open up play-action plays that can kill the Bears.

 

Bills @ Lions:

 

We have a Buffalo team that has hung in each game this year and turning over the keys to a new QB in hopes to utilize their weapons more effectively.

 

We have a Detroit team coming off a win against a meh Jets team. Stafford showed he had more weapons then just Megatron and the defense continues to over-produce what people thought they were capable of.

 

Detroit will be back home where they can close the roof and play fast. Buffalo has been a veryvery competitive defense throughout this year. They can cause turnovers pretty much every game and their front four will get to the QB at least once in the game. Pressure covers up the lack of talent everywhere else for the Bills. Their corners were good at one point, but Gilmore and McKelvin just play above average recently. I don't think they will get shredded, but Stafford should have a comfortable opportunity to put up points and move the chains through the air. The run gameof the Lions is becoming less important every week, and Buffalo doesn't give up rushing yard easily. At home I expect the Lions to cut it loose in the air throughout the game so the key comes to the front four of Buffalo to create pressure. Mario Williams more specifically will be the focus.

 

Buffalo has weapons all over the field and Orton is a game manager's game manager. He has accuracy short-med and he makes good choices. The plan will be to run the ball and get Watkins the ball quickly so he can make plays. The Lions front four is just as nasty as the Bills and will probably go solo against the offensive line to get to Orton. Buffalo has a pretty decent offensive line however and I have a strange feeling they will protect Orton better than expected. Orton won't win the game, but if the pressure isn't there the Lions will be forced to blitz and I believe Orton can catch the Lions with their pants down in coverage. The key is on the run game of Buffalo, if it doesn't get started against a tough front seven and Orton is forced to pass all game it will be an advantage for Detroit but not an automatic win.

 

In the end this should be a VERY GOOD game. I like Detroit at home just because they can put up points anytime and if it is a shoot out Stafford beats Orton. The game is on the pressure from the front four on both sides. Whichever defensive line can create their own pressure without a blitz and causes mistakes will keep their team on top.

[Thanatos 2,847]

MotM, we actually have the first FOUR starters down in the run-game lol.

 

We are down to a practice squad player, Fozzy Whitaker, and Chris Ogbonnaya.