Football Palace NFL Posts

Post-Combine NFL Mock Draft

Last week's Combine produced relatively few surprises, but did create separation at muddled positions on draft boards. Weighing in at 6'5/270 and running a 4.64 forty, USF's Jason Pierre-Paul made a serious case to be the first defensive end taken in April. Oklahoma's Sam Bradford showed up 13 pounds heavier than his college weight and -- most importantly -- carried it well, helping to dispel the idea that he'll be physically brittle at the next level. With 36-inch arms, top draft-eligible left tackle Russell Okung recorded a beastly 38 reps on the 225-pound bench to nix the notion that he might lack enough strength to be an immediate contributor in the running game.

Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, Clemson RB C.J. Spiller, Oklahoma OT Trent Williams, and Texas S Earl Thomas were other risers. Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, Rutgers OT Anthony Davis, Ole Miss RB Dexter McCluster, and LSU WR Brandon LaFell may have sunk after disappointing testing or performance in drills. Florida TE Aaron Hernandez, Alabama LB Rolando McClain, Florida LB Brandon Spikes, and WR Dez Bryant opted out due to injury, leaving questions about their competitiveness and athleticism unanswered.

Ultimately, though, good teams don't place as large an emphasis on forty times and hand size as they do on film study, production, and character. Keeping in mind team-by-team trends, need areas, and player quality, here's our best guess as to how the top 32 will shake out on April 22nd.

1. St. Louis Rams - Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford

If ESPN's Adam Schefter believes something strongly enough to guarantee it publicly, we can usually take it to the bank. And the Bradford-to-St. Louis fit is pretty much ideal. Assuming his medical went smoothly, Bradford has likely moved to the top of GM Billy Devaney's board. The Rams, who haven't drafted a QB in the first round since 1967, are in search of an accurate, intelligent, and athletic passer. Bradford also is highly aggressive, evidenced by an incredible 9.41 career yards-per-attempt average. St. Louis' quick move to sign A.J. Feeley at the outset of free agency strongly indicates that he'll be the organization's "bridge" to Bradford.

2. Detroit Lions - Oklahoma State LT Russell Okung

While the Lions insist that Friday's acquisition of DT Corey Williams won't influence their selection at No. 2 overall, it gives GM Martin Mayhew options. A three-technique pass rusher, Williams is slated to start alongside promising nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill. Williams plays the same position that Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy would in Detroit's 4-3. Protecting Matthew Stafford, who needed postseason knee surgery and played through a separated left shoulder during a rookie year in which he took too many hits, should now be Mayhew's top priority. The 2009 Big Twelve Offensive Lineman of the Year, Okung is the draft's most polished pass protector.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh

How about a statistical comparison between the draft's top defensive tackles over the last two seasons? Tackles: Suh - 161; Gerald McCoy - 64. Sacks: Suh - 19.5; McCoy - 12.5. Tackles for loss: Suh - 43; McCoy - 26.5. Yeah, McCoy was double teamed. So was Suh. Nebraska also uses a read-and-react system in which Suh's primary task was to keep action in front of him rather than knife up field. McCoy has always been a pure gap shooter. Clearly, Suh is the more productive player with better run-stopping ability. He would be an ideal pickup for Tampa Bay's league-worst run defense.

4. Washington Redskins - Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy

Should the top three go as predicted, new Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will be left with two players worth serious consideration at No. 4: Jimmy Clausen and McCoy. Clausen's smarts and accuracy-arm strength combo would be great fits for Shanahan's West Coast style, but The Mastermind wants to win now, and drafting best player available -- particularly when it involves a position of immediate need -- is the best way to do it. Transitioning to a 3-4 scheme, the Skins are weak at both end spots with 37-year-old Phillip Daniels and underachiever Anthony Montgomery as projected starters. Coordinator Jim Haslett's 3-4 is aggressive, and would take advantage of McCoy's strengths as a pass rusher.

5. Kansas City Chiefs - Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant

Bryant's absence from Combine workouts with a hamstring tweak was disappointing, but he may be the most physically gifted draft-eligible wideout since Calvin Johnson. Easily superior to Michael Crabtree in terms of size, leaping ability and deep-threat potential, Bryant is likely to rip up the track at his March 10 Pro Day. While Kansas City needs to strongly consider upgrading its front five in order to keep Matt Cassel upright, this year's depth at tackle and guard is tremendous. No incoming wide receiver holds a candle to Bryant, who draws deserved comparisons to Andre Johnson.

6. Seattle Seahawks - Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen

As Matt Hasselbeck enters a contract year at age 35, the Seahawks face lots of long-term uncertainty at quarterback. They are also rumored to be dangling backup Seneca Wallace, and we still wouldn't rule out a Hasselbeck draft-day trade to Cleveland. Clausen, who faced Pete Carroll's Trojans annually at Notre Dame, nearly led the Irish to a fourth-quarter comeback win over USC last season, throwing for 260 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. New offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates' successful history of young quarterback tutelage (e.g. Jay Cutler, Matt Barkley) should give Seattle confidence that Clausen would develop quickly.

7. Cleveland Browns - Tennessee S Eric Berry

Reaffirmed as the draft's premier defensive back by convincingly outdoing Joe Haden and Earl Thomas at the Combine, Berry blazed the track with a 4.47 forty and showed rare explosion on his jumps (10'10" broad, 43" vertical). Well-known players like Berry are often unfairly picked apart by evaluators in their final college seasons, but we've yet to find a flaw in Berry's game. The Browns need help at both cornerback and safety. Berry can cover the deep middle, support the run with a linebacker's mentality, and shut down slot receivers when opponents go three wide.

8. Oakland Raiders - Maryland LT Bruce Campbell

6'6", 314 pounds. The draft's longest arms (36 1/4"). 4.85 forty. These are the qualities Al Davis looks for in a prospect. Campbell's play doesn't match his underwear athleticism, but the Raiders have proved that they're more concerned with measurables than performance too many times for a workout wonder like Campbell to not rank high on Davis' draft board. Mario Henderson was a liability for most of last season, so Oakland should be in the market for a replacement.

9. Buffalo Bills - Oklahoma OT Trent Williams

Clausen falling to No. 9 would be a best-case scenario for the Bills, but that's unlikely. Behind quarterback, the team's biggest hole is at offensive tackle. Another Combine standout, Williams answered questions about his athleticism by posting the second fastest forty (4.88) and fifth best short-shuttle time (4.63) at his position. He also measured in at a solid 6'4 1/2" and 314 pounds with more-than-adequate 34 1/4" arms. Williams has a low ceiling, with Pro Bowl right tackle potential if he doesn't immediately dominate on the blind side. After the 2009 trade of LT Jason Peters and RT Brad Butler's surprise February retirement, Buffalo just needs warm bodies.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars - South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul

With Joe Haden out of the top-ten mix after a poor Combine, the Jags can refocus on their most pressing position: defensive end. This pick could easily come down to Pierre-Paul and 2009 ACC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Morgan. Pierre-Paul offers through-the-roof upside, but played just one year at Division I. Morgan was productive throughout his three years at Georgia Tech and may be the safer pick. A team that set a franchise record low in sacks last year must continue to add pass rushers, even after the Aaron Kampman signing. Kampman, going on 31 and coming off a torn ACL, is unlikely to be a consistent threat until next season's halfway point.

11. Denver Broncos - Tennessee NT Dan Williams

The Broncos' plan of action when the free agency/trading period began Friday became clear immediately; they're upgrading their lines. They've shown interest in free agents Jarvis Green, Rex Hadnot, Jason Babin, and Kevin Mawae, signed DL Justin Bannan and praised his "versatility" as an end/nose tackle in a post-signing statement, and retained G/C Russ Hochstein. Denver's run defense was atrocious a year ago, and the NFL-ready Williams would be a big upgrade on the nose ahead of Ronald Fields. A Williams-Fields-Bannan-Ryan McBean rotation could keep blockers off ILB D.J. Williams and make the whole front seven competitive.

12. Miami Dolphins - Texas OLB Sergio Kindle

The Fins addressed one of their primary weaknesses Friday night by making Karlos Dansby the game's highest paid non-rush linebacker. They now need a rush linebacker. Pierre-Paul figures to be director of football operations Bill Parcells' preferred target due to his length and freakish athleticism, but Kindle won't be far behind. Ready to contribute immediately on all three downs, Kindle exhibited the ability to rush from two- and three-point stances at Texas, led the Longhorns in QB pressures last season, and was highly disruptive throughout his career. Charlie Anderson and Cameron Wake would be Miami's starting outside linebackers if the season began today.

13. San Francisco 49ers - Rutgers LT Anthony Davis

Davis' Combine performance left a lot to be desired. He managed just 21 reps of 225 pounds on the bench and ran a forty-yard dash in the 5.2-5.3 range. The rep total is Michael Oher-like, however, and rarely do offensive tackles actually run forty yards. Davis, who doesn't turn 21 until mid-October, offers perhaps the most upside of any draft-eligible offensive lineman at 6'6/325 with 34-inch arms and an impressive 32-start college resume. Needy at right tackle, the 49ers could start Davis there initially and possibly flip flop him with LT Joe Staley in the future.

14. Seattle Seahawks - Iowa LT Bryan Bulaga

To come out of the first round with a left tackle and franchise quarterback would qualify Pete Carroll's Seahawks draft debut as a true humdinger. Either way, you can be sure Seattle will take a tackle with one of its first two selections. Joe Thomas-lite at 6'5/315 with great feet and adequate arm length (33 1/4") to protect the blind side, the 2009 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year is NFL ready coming from Kirk Ferentz's pro-style system. Ferentz also makes heavy use of zone blocking at Iowa, and new Seahawks OL coach Alex Gibbs is the godfather of the system.

15. New York Giants - Florida CB Joe Haden

Haden's 4.6 forty will cost him a spot in the draft's top ten, but he isn't likely to get past GM Jerry Reese's Giants. A firm believer in the best-player-available strategy, Reese proved last year that he puts little stock in pre-draft hiccups. North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks ran just 4.54 in the forty, scored a pitiful 11 on the Wonderlic, and gained a scary 14 pounds during the one-month period between the Combine and Tar Heels' Pro Day. Reese made Nicks the No. 29 overall pick. Haden could push for LCB Aaron Ross' starting job in year one, and at worst upgrade the Giants' woeful pass defense as a nickel back, replacing non-tendered restricted free agent Kevin Dockery.

16. Tennessee Titans - Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan

The 2009 ACC Defensive Player of the Year and first-team All American probably deserves to go higher than this, but the Titans would love for Morgan to fall into their laps. Moving on from Kyle Vanden Bosch and washed-up Jevon Kearse, Tennessee has a hole at defensive end opposite William Hayes. Morgan, at 6'4/272 with 4.7 speed and immense college production, projects as an every-down end and "character guy" on and off the field. He recorded 18.5 tackles for loss and an ACC-best 12.5 sacks as a junior before declaring for the draft.

17. San Francisco 49ers - Texas S Earl Thomas

After securing offensive tackle help at No. 13, the 49ers can pursue play-making ability with their second first-round pick. Clemson RB/KR C.J. Spiller should be a strong consideration, but it's believed GM Scot McCloughan won't use a top-20 selection on a tailback he doesn't consider an every-down player. Thomas, the Big Twelve interceptions leader with eight as a third-year sophomore, would team with Dashon Goldson to give San Francisco perhaps the most impressive young safety duo in the league. Also an effective enough cover man to contain slot receivers, Thomas would upgrade the team's nickel package in addition to excelling as a free safety on early downs.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Alabama ILB Rolando McClain

McClain didn't work out at the Combine due to a hamstring injury, despite telling NFL Network's Charles Davis in Indianapolis that he was healthy. He should be 100 percent for the Crimson Tide's March 10 Pro Day, but questions about McClain's speed and range remain. Still, the Butkus Award winner is too good a player to fall out of the top 20, and Pittsburgh would be an excellent landing spot. McClain has made it clear that he wants to stay in a 3-4 defense after learning the system under Nick Saban, and 35-year-old Steelers ILB James Farrior's play is declining sharply.

19. Atlanta Falcons - Notre Dame WR Golden Tate

Vehemently answering questions about his speed, Tate appeared to lock up the distinction of being this draft's No. 2 receiver prospect by running an official forty of 4.42 in Indianapolis. The Hines Ward clone is a first-round pick. Atlanta seemed destined to draft the best cornerback available at No. 19 before making Dunta Robinson the NFL's second highest paid CB on Friday evening, but now have options. While the team values current No. 2 Michael Jenkins' blocking ability, he doesn't make plays and slot man Harry Douglas is coming off a torn ACL. The product of a pro-style system, Tate would alleviate double teams from Roddy White's side of the field.

20. Houston Texans - Clemson RB C.J. Spiller

Lasting to No. 20 might be a bit too long for Spiller, but NFL evaluators continue to question his ability to hold up at 5'11/196. Spiller played through a toe injury as a senior and only spent one season as an every-down back, sharing time in his first three with current Browns RB James Davis. The reality is Spiller was remarkably durable at Clemson, missing just one game in four seasons. Should Spiller be off the board before they pick, the Texans are expected to strongly consider more powerfully built Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - UCLA DT Brian Price

Bengals coordinator Mike Zimmer's aggressive unit did well to rank No. 4 in total defense a year ago despite lacking one key element -- an up-field interior rusher. Price, the 2009 Pac Ten Defensive Player of the Year and conference leader in tackles for loss, fills the bill as a true three technique tackle in a 4-3. Still just 20 (he turns 21 on April 10), Price offers a high ceiling and an incredibly productive resume. He'd present quite an upgrade over free agent Tank Johnson.

22. New England Patriots - Penn State DT Jared Odrick

A 3-4 rush linebacker ranks higher on New England's list of needs, but Odrick's game-changing ability to collapse and contain, depending on the defensive play call, will probably be too hard to pass up if he's still available. A power player with plenty of quickness, the 6'5/301-pound Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year would book end DE Ty Warren in Bill Belichick's system. Odrick makes everyone around him better, and the Patriots have three second-round picks at their disposal to use on college ends converting to linebacker. Murray State's Austen Lane, TCU's Jerry Hughes, and Utah's Koa Misi should be on their radar in round two.

23. Green Bay Packers - USC LT Charles Brown

Green Bay's re-signing of Chad Clifton doesn't reduce the team's need for a long-term left tackle. Clifton turns 34 in July, is no longer an effective run blocker, and battled injuries all last season. Brown, a converted tight end, will probably never be a stud in the ground game himself, but is a pro-ready pass blocker and possesses ideal athleticism for the Packers' zone-blocking system. At 6'5/303 with 35 1/4-inch arms, Brown also has picturesque length to stay on the blind side.

24. Philadelphia Eagles - Florida DE Carlos Dunlap

A top-ten talent, Dunlap is rumored to have dropped on, or even been removed from, several draft boards due to off-field issues, inconsistent production, and a motor that runs hot and cold. He had nine sacks last season, but only 10.5 tackles for loss and was arrested for DUI in December. Still, Dunlap is built like Julius Peppers at 6'6/277, and "hides" the weight so well that he could probably bulk up to 300 and remain explosive. With the Birds needy at left end after missing out on Peppers in free agency, Dunlap offers immense upside as both a blitzer and run defender.

25. Baltimore Ravens - Boise State CB Kyle Wilson

The Ravens satisfied their receiver need in a big way by acquiring Anquan Boldin for a pair of mid-round picks Friday night. Their next biggest weakness is in the back end, with 2009 starting CBs Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb recovering from torn ACLs. Baltimore needs a corner that's ready to play right away. Wilson is what the doctor ordered as a four-year starter and annual Academic All-WAC pick who's never missed a game due to injury. Also an explosive punt returner, Wilson offers special teams value if he's unable to secure a starting job in 2010.

26. Arizona Cardinals - Michigan DE Brandon Graham

No team has lost more than the Cardinals over the last week, yet outside linebacker has all along remained their softest spot. 33-year-old Clark Haggans, who provides little pass-rush ability, is Arizona's lone returning OLB with significant experience. The Cards have flirted with free agent Joey Porter, but he too is 33 and in decline. Graham, a LaMarr Woodley clone, will probably not be drafted in the top 20 due to size concerns; 3-4 clubs want rush 'backers to be at least 6-foot-2, and Graham comes up short. He also has just 30 1/2-inch arms. Cardinals GM Rod Graves knows a difference-making sack artist when he sees one, though, and Graham qualifies.

27. Dallas Cowboys - Florida State CB Patrick Robinson

Jerry Jones' team has perhaps the league's most complete roster and could go a number of ways with their first-round pick. Nickel back Orlando Scandrick was arguably Dallas' biggest defensive liability a year ago, and should be on the hot seat this summer. While there are questions about Robinson's ball skills after he picked off just one pass in his junior and senior years combined, it's worth noting that he had six interceptions as a sophomore. It's possible that opponents simply stopped throwing away from him. With ideal hip fluidity and extremely quick feet, Robinson may be the best pure man-to-man corner in the draft.

28. San Diego Chargers - Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews

San Diego has more needs than you'd think (Alabama NT Terrence Cody is also worth a long look), but urgency at running back figures to force GM A.J. Smith's hand. Mathews, last year's NCAA rushing leader, vaulted himself into the first-round conversation and perhaps past Georgia Tech's Jonathan Dwyer on draft boards with a terrific Combine. He ran a 4.45 forty and looked smooth in receiving drills. With the LaDainian Tomlinson era over and Michael Bennett released last Thursday, restricted free agent Darren Sproles is the only Chargers back under control for 2010.

29. New York Jets - Rutgers CB Devin McCourty

On paper, the Jets went a long way toward solving their No. 2 cornerback dilemma by trading for Antonio Cromartie last Thursday. However, both Cromartie and Darrelle Revis are in contract years, nickel back Donald Strickland has been released, and Rex Ryan doesn't seem high on 2008 fourth-round pick Dwight Lowery. A kick-blocking machine with increased special teams value, McCourty's stock has soared during draft season with an impressive Senior Bowl and outstanding Combine. He could take over as a starter in 2011 if the Cromartie experiment fails.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Florida C Maurkice Pouncey

A starter at both right guard and center at Florida, Pouncey is this year's consensus top pivot. The 2009 Rimington Award winner would be an immediate starter in Minnesota, replacing 2008 sixth-round pick John Sullivan. The Vikings had all kinds of run-blocking problems last season, as Adrian Peterson averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per carry and was too often bottled up at the line of scrimmage. Pouncey, still just 20 years old, could potentially move to left guard eventually. Incumbent LG Steve Hutchinson is showing signs of decline and headed for his age-33 season.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Clemson DE Ricky Sapp

Sapp (6'4/252) is popularly mocked to 3-4 teams as an outside linebacker prospect after playing "bandit end" as a three-year starter at Clemson. Colts president Bill Polian, though, isn't bullish on having his ends at a certain weight. Indianapolis has gotten by just fine with 245-pound Robert Mathis and 6'1/268-pound Dwight Freeney at the position. The Colts' lack of depth in the pass rush department was exposed in the Super Bowl, as Raheem Brock couldn't get to Drew Brees while Freeney was sidelined with a foot injury. Brock has since been released.

32. New Orleans Saints - USC DE Everson Griffen

New Orleans has parted with underachieving LE Charles Grant after a season-ending torn triceps muscle and too many years if middling production. The Saints have just two ends under contract for 2010: RE Will Smith and nickel rusher Bobby McCray. Griffen, who finished his USC career with 18 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, reported to the Combine at a hulking 6'4/274. The build is ideal for a strong-side defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. Griffen also ran an extremely impressive 4.66 forty and benched 225 pounds 32 times to solidify a late first-round grade.

Narrowly Missed: Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas, USC S Taylor Mays, Alabama NT Terrence Cody, Northwestern DE Corey Wootton, Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, UMass LT Vladimir Ducasse, Idaho OG Mike Iupati, Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, Iowa CB Amari Spievey, Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon, TCU LB Daryl Washington, Florida LB Brandon Spikes, USC WR Damian Williams, TCU DE Jerry Hughes, Penn State LB Navorro Bowman, Florida TE Aaron Hernandez, Illinois WR Arrelious Benn, LSU S Chad Jones, LSU WR Brandon LaFell, California RB Jahvid Best, Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski, Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard